000
AXNT20 KNHC 171629
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed May 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 20W, from 00N to 
11N, moving west around 10 knots. Scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N-06N between 15W-25W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is confined to the African continent. The 
ITCZ extends from 05N15W to 05N19W, where it breaks for the 
tropical wave, and then extends from 04N21W to 02N46W. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N-06N 
between 15W-28W. Scattered moderate convection exists from 03N-
05N between 33W-43W.
 
...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends from the Louisiana coast near 30N92W 
southwestward to the Texas-Mexico border near 26N97W. Scattered 
moderate convection is occurring ahead of the front north of 25N 
between 09W-96W. Weak surface ridging extends east-west across 
the Gulf along 23N. Winds are light to gentle across the whole 
Gulf with seas only 1-2 ft.

For the forecast, the cold front extending over the northern 
Gulf waters will dissipate by Thu. Gentle to moderate westerly 
winds are expected in association with this front. Then, weak 
high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern 
across the Gulf region through the upcoming weekend producing 
mainly light to gentle winds and slight seas. However, winds and 
seas could be higher near showers and thunderstorms. Gentle to 
moderate NE to E winds are forecast at night near and NW of the 
Yucatan Peninsula through the forecast period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Weak surface ridging north of the Caribbean is forcing only 
gentle to moderate trades across the Caribbean this afternoon. 
Seas are only 2-4 ft. No significant deep convection is noted 
today.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trades and slight to 
moderate seas are expected over the east and central Caribbean 
while light to gentle winds and slight seas will prevail in the 
NW Caribbean. By tonight, winds will increase to moderate to 
fresh speeds across the south-central Caribbean, including the 
Gulf of Venezuela, with seas building to 7 or 8 ft near the 
coast of Colombia. These marine conditions are forecast to 
persist through Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An expansive surface high centered north of our waters at 36N30W 
dominates the Atlantic waters today with ridging extending west-
southwestward to 31N49W to 23N80W. Equatorward of the ridgeline, 
the NE to E trades are moderate to fresh with seas 6-8 ft. 
Poleward of the ridgeline bewteen the Bahamas and Bermuda, SW to 
W winds are gentle to moderate with seas 3-5 ft. Aside from the 
deep convection noted in association with the tropical wave and 
the ITCZ, no other significant deep convection is noted. 

For the forecast west of 55W, as high pressure builds westward 
across the forecast region, this will bring gentle to moderate 
southerly winds across the majority of the area through Thu 
morning. A low pressure area is forecast to develop along a 
frontal boundary just off the SE US tonight into Thu morning. 
This system is forecast to move toward Cape Hatteras by Fri, 
with strong winds and rough seas expected to remain north of 
31N. 

$$
Landsea