000
AXNT20 KNHC 170902
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed May 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 18W, from 02N to
12N, moving west at 10 knots. No significant convection is
observed at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is confined to the African continent. The ITCZ
extends from 04N20W to 02N41W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 01N to 06N between 20W and 40W.
 
...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed near the Mississippi River Delta. 
Scattered moderate convection is observed north of 28N between 87W
and 90W. A weak cold front is approaching the Texas Gulf coast,
causing gentle to moderate westerly winds north of 28N. Gentle to
moderate NE winds are noted west of the Yucatan Peninsula. 
Otherwise, weak high pressure dominates the basin causing light to
gentle winds and slight seas.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will continue to dominate 
the weather pattern across the Gulf waters this week producing 
mainly light to gentle winds and slight seas. Gentle to moderate 
westerly winds are expected over the NE Gulf today and tonight as 
a cold front approaches the Gulf coast. Gentle to moderate NE to E
winds are forecast at night near and NW of the Yucatan Peninsula 
through the forecast period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Winds are moderate in the eastern Caribbean, gentle in the central
Caribbean, and light in the NW Caribbean. Seas are generally in
the 2-4 ft range, except for 1-3 ft in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trades and slight to 
moderate seas are expected over the east and central Caribbean 
while light to gentle winds and slight seas will prevail in the NW
Caribbean. By Thu night, winds will increase to moderate to fresh
across the south-central Caribbean, with strong winds possible in
the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Barranquilla, Colombia. 
Similar conditions are expected Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary boundary has dissipated this morning and high 
pressure is building across the western subtropical Atlantic. A 
few isolated showers are observed from 20N to 27N between 60W and 
66W. Winds are gentle to moderate from the S-SE with 4-6 ft seas. 
In the eastern subtropical Atlantic, the gradient between high 
pressure near the Azores and lower pressure over NW Africa is 
supporting moderate to fresh NE winds and 6-8 ft seas. In the 
tropical latitudes south of 20N, trade winds are generally 
moderate with 6-9 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, as high pressure builds across the 
area, gentle to moderate southerly winds will dominate the 
majority of the area through Sat. A moderately strong low 
pressure system is forecast to develop along a frontal boundary 
just off the SE US by tonight. This system is forecast to move 
toward Cape Hatteras by Fri, with strong winds and rough seas 
expected to remain north of 31N, in the Ocean Prediction Center's 
area of responsibility. 

$$
Flynn