000 AXNT20 KNHC 170526 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed May 17 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 17W/18W, from 12N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 10N southward between 10W and 20W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ: 04N19W 03N23W 04N26W 03N33W 02N41W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered strong is within 150 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 26W and 36W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from 07N southward between 20W and 52W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the NW corner of the area, including inland along the Texas/Mexico border, and for about 200 nm into Mexico from the border with Texas. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 23N in Mexico to the border with Texas between the coast and 100W. Isolated moderate is in the NW quadrant of the Gulf of Mexico. A 1014 mb high pressure center is near 27N95W. A surface trough extends from SE Louisiana toward the Florida Keys. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on either side of the trough. The sea heights are 2 feet in the western half of the area, and 1 foot in the eastern half of the area. Mostly gentle winds are everywhere in the Gulf of Mexico. Some exceptions are: moderate NE winds along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from 89W westward; moderate to fresh winds that were in the coastal sections of Mexico between 94W and 98W. Weak high pressure will dominate the weather pattern across the Gulf waters this week producing mainly light to gentle winds and slight seas. Gentle to moderate westerly winds are expected over the NE Gulf Wed and Wed night as a cold front approaches the area. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are forecast at night near and NW of the Yucatan Peninsula through the forecast period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Gentle to moderate winds span the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 4 feet from 20N southward from 80W eastward, and in the SW corner of the area. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 2 feet elsewhere. An exception is an isolated area of 3 feet off the NE coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows cyclonic wind flow with a trough from Nicaragua northward from the Windward Passage westward. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are in much of the Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are expected over the east and central Caribbean while light to gentle winds and slight seas will prevail in the NW Caribbean. By Thu night, winds will increase to moderate to fresh across the south- central Caribbean, with strong winds possible in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Barranquilla, Colombia. Similar conditions are expected nightly through Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is along 31N50W 28N60W 27N70W. A surface trough continues from 27N70W, to the NW Bahamas. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 25N69W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, are from the front southward from 50W westward, and within 120 nm on the northern side of the front from 64W eastward. A surface ridge extends from a 1029 mb high pressure center that is near 35N30W, through 31N39W to 27N53W 25N65W, toward the central Bahamas. The sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 7 feet from 13N northward from 30W eastward. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 20N northward from 30W eastward. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are from 04N to 14N between 43W and 53W. Fresh NE winds are from 05N to 27N between 30W and 45W. Moderate or slower wind speeds are in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere from 60W eastward. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 5 feet from 60W westward. A stationary front over the NE waters will dissipate by Wed morning as high pressure builds across the area. This will bring gentle to moderate southerly winds across the majority of the area through Sat. A low pressure area is forecast to develop along a frontal boundary just off the SE US by Wed night. This system is forecast to move toward Cape Hatteras by Fri, with strong winds and rough seas expected to remain north of 31N, in the Ocean Prediction Center's area of responsibility. $$ mt/df