000 AXNT20 KNHC 162232 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed May 17 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 17W from 02N-12N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the wave from 03N to 07N between 15W-28W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The majority of a monsoon trough is over the African continent. The ITCZ extends from 05N19W to north of Suriname near 07N56W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-10N between 38W-56W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms in the SW Caribbean waters near Costa Rica, Panama and northern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough hugs along the coast from the western Bay of Campeche northward to southern Texas. Aided by divergent flow at the mid to upper levels, scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted N of 26N and W of 94W. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds over the southern portion of this trough across the Bay of Campeche. To the E, another surface trough is analyzed from 24N88W to 30N88W. Otherwise, a modest 1017 mb high at the northwestern Gulf along with a surface ridge at the northeastern Gulf are supporting light to gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas for the entire Gulf. For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the weather pattern across the Gulf waters this week maintaining light to gentle winds and slight seas. However, winds and seas could be higher near showers and thunderstorms. Gentle to moderate westerly winds are expected over the NE Gulf Wed and Wed night as a cold front approaches the area. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are forecast at night near and NW of the Yucatan Peninsula through Thu night increasing to moderate to fresh speeds Fri night and Sat night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Modest convergent trade winds are causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the northwestern basin. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Caribbean Basin. Moderate to fresh easterly trades and 3 to 5 ft seas are evident at the south-central basin. Gentle to moderate easterly trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are expected over the east and central Caribbean while light to gentle winds and slight seas will prevail in the NW Caribbean. Winds are forecast to increase to moderate to fresh speeds across the south-central Caribbean, and in the Gulf of Venezuela Thu night through Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends southwestward from the central Atlantic at 31N51W to east of the northwest Bahamas at 27N72W. Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 80 nm along either side of this boundary. Enhanced by an upper-level low near 26N71W, scattered showers and thunderstorms are flaring up from 21N to 26N between 58W and 70W. Farther west, a surface trough runs parallel to the Bahamas near 25N76W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Light to gentle winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are present north of 20N between 45W and the Florida-Georgia coast. At the northeast Atlantic, gentle to moderate to fresh NE trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted 20N between the northwest Africa coast and 45W, including the Canary Islands. To the south, gentle to moderate NNE to NE trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate northerly swell exist from 06N to 20N between the central Africa coast and 40W, including the Cabo Verde Islands. Farther west, Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to ENE trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are found from 05N to 20N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft in a mix of northerly and southerly swells prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the front over the NE waters will lift northward by tonight. The surface trough near the central Bahamas will dissipate by tonight as high pressure builds westward across the forecast region bringing gentle to moderate southerly winds. A low pres area is forecast to develop along a frontal boundary just off SE US by Wed night. This system is forecast to move toward Cape Hatteras by Fri. The strongest winds and the highest seas associated with this system will remain N of the forecast area. $$ ERA