000
AXNT20 KNHC 161758
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue May 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 16W from the coast of
Guinea-Bissau and southward, and moving westward near 10 kts. 
Widely scattered moderate convection is noted near the wave from 
07N to 08N between the Sierra Leone coast and 16W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The majority of a monsoon trough is over the African continent. An 
ITCZ extends west-northwestward from 04N19W across 04N40W to north
of Suriname near 07N54W. Scattered moderate convection is observed
up to 100 nm along either side of the ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the Caribbean
waters near Costa Rica and Panama.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough hugs along the coast from the western Bay of 
Campeche northward to southern Texas. Aided by divergent flow at
the mid to upper levels, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
occurring at the waters near Veracruz, Mexico and Corpus Christi,
Texas. Another weak surface trough is triggering isolated 
thunderstorms at the south-central Gulf. Otherwise, a modest 1018 
mb high at the northwestern Gulf along with a surface ridge at the
northeastern Gulf are supporting light to gentle winds with 1 to 
3 ft seas for the entire Gulf.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the weather 
pattern across the Gulf waters this week, producing mainly light 
to gentle winds and slight seas. Gentle to moderate westerly winds
are expected over the northern Gulf Wed and Wed night as a cold 
front approaches the area. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are 
forecast at night near and northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula 
through Thu night, which will become moderate to fresh Fri night 
and Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Modest convergent trade winds are causing widely scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms over the northwestern basin. Refer to
the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the
Caribbean Basin. Moderate with locally fresh easterly trades and 3
to 5 ft seas are evident at the south-central basin. Gentle to
moderate easterly trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the
rest of the basin.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trades and slight to 
moderate seas are expected over the eastern and central Caribbean
while light to gentle winds and slight seas will prevail in the 
northwestern Caribbean. Winds are forecast to increase to between
moderate and fresh across the south-central Caribbean, and in the
Gulf of Venezuela by Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends southwestward from the central Atlantic
at 31N52W to east of the northwest Bahamas at 27N72W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted up to 80 nm along
either side of this boundary. Convergent southerly winds to the
south are producing similar conditions from 21N to 26N between 61W
and 67W. Farther west, a surface trough runs parallel to the
Bahamas near 26N76W. Enhanced by an upper-level low near 25N72W,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are flaring up from 20N to 28N
between 69W and 74W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at
the beginning for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Light to gentle winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are present north of
20N between 45W and the Florida-Georgia coast. At the northeast
Atlantic, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NNE to NE trades
and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted 20N between the northwest Africa 
coast and 45W, including the Canary Islands. To the south, gentle 
to moderate NNE to NE trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate
northerly swell exist from 06N to 20N between the central Africa
coast and 40W, including the Cabo Verde Islands. Farther west,
Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to ENE trades and 5 to 7
ft seas are found from 05N to 20N between 40W and the Lesser
Antilles. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft in a mix of
northerly and southerly swells prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic
Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will lift 
north of 30N by tonight. The surface trough parallel to the 
Bahamas will dissipate by tonight as high pressure builds westward
across the forecast region, bringing gentle to moderate southerly
winds. A weak low pressure system is forecast to develop along a 
frontal boundary just off southeast U.S. by Wed which should 
affect the waters off northeast Florida with gentle to moderate SW
to W winds.

$$

Forecaster Chan