000
AXNT20 KNHC 151003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon May 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to
02N15W. The ITCZ continues from 02N15W to 01N39W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from the equator to 07N between
10W and 16W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends across the southwestern Gulf, with
associated numerous moderate convection observed from 23N to 26N
between 96W and 98W. Outside of thunderstorms, high pressure 
centered near the Mississippi River Delta dominates the pattern.
Anticyclonic winds are gentle to moderate with 1-3 ft seas in the
eastern Gulf and 4-6 ft seas in the western Gulf, on an abating 
trend.

For the forecast, high pressure and a loose gradient will 
dominate the Gulf of Mexico this week. Moderate winds across the 
majority of the basin are forecast to diminish to gentle this 
afternoon, and further decrease to light from Tue-Thu. Moderate 
seas in the western Gulf will abate tonight, leaving slight seas 
throughout the basin for the remainder of the week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure
over the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh to locally strong E
trade winds in the south-central Caribbean, where seas are in the
6-8 ft range. Elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean,
winds are moderate with 4-6 ft seas. In the NW Caribbean, E winds
are gentle to moderate with 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh trade winds will persist in the south-
central Caribbean through tonight before diminishing early Tue. 
Winds will continue to pulse to fresh speeds nightly off the coast
of Barranquilla, Colombia. Moderate winds elsewhere in the 
central and eastern Caribbean will diminish to a gentle breeze Tue
and persist through Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends across the Bahamas from 29N75W to 21N80W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 23N to 27N between
73W and 75W. Otherwise, a very weak pressure gradient across the
western Atlantic is allowing light winds and slight to moderate seas
in the north of 25N and west of 63W. South of 25N, winds are 
moderate from the SE with 4-5 ft seas. In the central Atlantic, a 
surface trough is observed along 30N, supporting scattered 
moderate convection from 28N to 31N between 58W and 62W. The 
remnants of an old stationary boundary extend from 31N61W to 
29N64W. East of this line, winds are moderate from the SW. 
Otherwise, winds are gentle with slight to moderate seas. In the 
eastern Atlantic, the gradient between the Azores high and lower 
pressure over NW Africa is supporting fresh NE winds with 7-9 ft 
seas. In the tropical Atlantic, south of 20N, winds are moderate 
to fresh from the NE with 5-7 ft seas.

For the forecast, a weak cold front will approach the northern 
waters Mon night and exit the area by Tue night. A surface trough 
near the Bahamas will linger into Wed night. Otherwise, surface 
ridging and gentle to moderate winds will dominate the remainder 
of the forecast period. 

$$
Flynn