000 AXNT20 KNHC 150553 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon May 15 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N, to 02N15W. The ITCZ continues from 02N15W, to 01N18W, and 01N38W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 240 nm to the east of the north-to- south oriented monsoon trough from Africa southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough, and a surface trough, have been in the western half of the Gulf of Mexico during much of the last 24 hours or so. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the areas that are from the Yucatan Peninsula to the coast of Texas. A 1020 mb high pressure center is off the coast of SE Louisiana and Mississippi. Fresh NE-to-E winds are within 250 nm to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Mostly moderate to some fresh winds are elsewhere from 90W westward. Gentle to moderate wind speeds are in the eastern half of the area. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 5 feet in the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. An exception is for 3 feet off the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 4 feet from the Florida Big Bend westward, and from 1 foot to 2 feet elsewhere. Fresh to locally strong winds near and NW of the Yucatan Peninsula will decrease to moderate early Mon. Winds across the majority of the basin are forecast to diminish to gentle Mon afternoon, and further decrease to light from Tue-Thu. Moderate seas in the western Gulf will abate Mon night, leaving slight seas throughout the basin for the remainder of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model shows that a 250 mb trough passes through SE Cuba to Jamaica, into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The GFS model for 500 mb shows that a trough passes through the Yucatan Peninsula, to Honduras, to northern sections of Costa Rica. The southern end of a surface trough reaches SE Cuba. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 13N northward from 70W westward. Upper level moisture is moving northeastward, from the offshore waters of Colombia, northeastward, from 70W eastward. Strong E winds are within 240 nm to the north of the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela between 69W and 75W. Mostly fresh NE winds are elsewhere between 70W and 80W. Moderate to fresh E winds are from 70W eastward. Fresh NE winds are within 160 nm to the north of the eastern half of the coastal areas of Honduras. Moderate wind speeds cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet between Puerto Rico and Jamaica from Hispaniola southward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 5 feet elsewhere from 80W eastward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet from Honduras northward from 80W westward, and they range from 1 foot to 2 feet from Honduras southward from 80W westward. The 24-hour rainfall total, for the period that ended at 15/0000 UTC, is 0.45 in San Juan in Puerto Rico, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN. Fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the south-central Caribbean through tonight before diminishing early this week. Moderate to fresh winds elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Mon and continue through the remainder of the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is along 29N76W to SE Cuba. Fresh SE winds are from 90 nm to 240 nm to the east of the surface trough from 22N to 26N. the sea heights range from 2 feet to 5 feet from 60W westward. Broad middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow surrounds the area of the surface trough. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate, and locally strong, is from 60W westward. The 24-hour rainfall total in inches, for the period that ended at 15/0000 UTC, is 0.13 in Nassau in the Bahamas, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN. A dissipating stationary front is along 31N50W 28N56W. Rainshowers are possible from 19N northward from 60W eastward. A 1032 mb high pressure center is near 39N23W. A surface ridge passes through 31N40W to 28N51W to 29N71W. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from 20N northward from 40W eastward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. Strong NE winds are from 30N northward from 20W eastward, and from 10N to 14N between 40W and 50W. Fresh NE winds are from 22N northward between 20W and 30W, from 06N to 29N between 30W and 40W, from 05N to 18N between 40W and 50W, and from 08N to 16N between 50W and 60W. Moderate or slower wind speeds are in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. A weak cold front will approach the northern waters Mon night and exit the area by Tue night. A surface trough near the Bahamas will linger into Wed. Otherwise surface ridging and gentle to moderate winds will continue to dominate the remainder of the forecast period. $$ MT/DF