000 AXNT20 KNHC 142305 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon May 15 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 01N26W to 02N42W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from the equator to 07N between 05W and 20W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough persists across the western Gulf this afternoon, along about 95W, and has been the focus for very active convection there in the past 24 hours, supported by upper level divergent flow. A few clusters of strong thunderstorms are along the trough to the N of 24N. Moderate to locally fresh ESE winds are east of the trough, with moderate NW winds west of the trough. Seas have subsided slightly in recent hours and are generally 5 to 6 ft per buoy observations. East of 90W, gentle to moderate winds with 2 to 4 ft seas are noted in recent buoy observations. Strong afternoon thunderstorms have developed across much of the northern Yucatan Peninsula, and are moving near the coast between Campeche and Progreso. For the forecast, weak surface high pressure is centered across the SE U.S. this evening and will drift southward into the north central Gulf late Mon, and then settle along 25N by mid week. Expect fresh to locally strong winds to pulse to strong near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight, and then to fresh speeds Mon evening and night. Winds are forecast to diminish to light to gentle speeds elsewhere on Mon, and then prevail through Thu night. Slight to moderate seas are expected with these winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between a weakening subtropical high- pressure ridge extending along 31N to the north of the basin and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean supports fresh to strong winds offshore Colombia and Venezuela, south of 15N between the ABC Islands and 76W. Seas range from 6 to 9 ft. Fresh E-SE winds are across the remainder of the central and eastern basin, east of 76W, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Recent satellite scatterometer data suggest that gentle to moderate winds are over the basin west of 76W, except for within the Gulf of Honduras, where winds may be moderate to fresh with seas up to 5 ft. Convective activity across the basin is confined to land areas, with no significant precipitation over water at this time. For the forecast, the high pressure ridge to the north will shift E and weaken tonight into Mon, and gradually be replaced by weak high pressure Tue through Wed. Look for fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the south-central Caribbean tonight before winds and seas diminish early this week. Moderate to fresh winds elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Mon and continue through the remainder forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary boundary extends from 31N49W to 27N58W, then continues as a dissipating trough the 28N70W. A surface trough extends from the SE Bahamas along 75W-76W to near 30N, and continues to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across and E of the trough to 70W. This ongoing activity is being supported by upper troughing just to the west providing divergence aloft across this area. Moderate to locally fresh winds E to SE winds are occurring E of the trough to near 60W, while gentle to moderate NE winds are west of the trough. Otherwise, the remainder of these subtropical waters is under the influence of the Bermuda and Azores Highs, which support mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds W of 32W and fresh to strong NE winds and 7-10 ft seas E of 32W and N of 24N. Seas of 3-6 ft are elsewhere. In the tropics, south of 20N, winds are generally moderate to fresh W of 35W with 5-7 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front is expected to dissipate overnight. A new cold front across the western Atlantic will move southeastward tonight to reach the north-central waters, and exit the area by Tue evening. Weak high pressure will prevail behind it. The surface trough across the the Bahamas will linger through Tue, with continued active weather expected near and E of it. Otherwise, surface ridging will dominate the remainder of the forecast period. $$ Stripling