000
AXNT20 KNHC 140352
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 
0605 UTC Sun May 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America 
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South 
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the 
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite 
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0350 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 
12N17W to 07N28W. The ITCZ continues from 07N28W to 03N51W. 
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 08N 
between 13W and 25W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Widespread convection continues tonight over the western Gulf, 
with a squall line analyzed from 23N97W to 18N96W. Thunderstorms 
along this feature are producing frequent lightning strikes, 
heavy downpours and strong, gusty winds. Outside of 
thunderstorms, the gradient between high pressure in the NE Gulf 
and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting mainly moderate E 
winds across the basin, with fresh to strong NE winds near the 
Yucatan Peninsula and gentle winds in the NE Gulf. Seas are 5-7 
ft in the western Gulf, 3-5 ft in the central Gulf, and 1-3 ft 
in the eastern Gulf.

Smoke from agricultural fires is covering portions of the 
western Gulf roughly W of 92W. The latest SAB analysis indicated 
a medium concentration of smoke over this region of the Gulf, 
including the Bay of Campeche. Weather observations in the NW 
Gulf also indicate the presence of haze.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near 
and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight. Winds will 
become easterly across most of the basin by late Sun into Mon as 
high pressure settles over the northern Gulf. Slight to moderate 
seas will prevail, reaching 7 or 8 ft in the NW Gulf through Sun 
under a persistent SE wind flow. Winds are forecast to diminish 
to light to gentle speeds on Mon and prevail through Thu night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a subtropical high-pressure ridge 
along 33N and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean supports 
moderate to fresh E winds across the majority of the basin, 
except for locally strong winds along the coast of Colombia and 
in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle winds are observed in the lee of 
Cuba. Seas are 5-7 ft in the south central Caribbean and Gulf of 
Honduras, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

Smoke from agricultural fires is covering portions of the far NW 
Gulf, and has been most dense across the Gulf of Honduras where 
the latest SAB analysis indicated a medium concentration of 
smoke, and visibilities likely less than 5 nm.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to 
rough seas are expected in the south-central Caribbean through 
tonight then mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail through 
early next week. Fresh to strong E winds are also forecast in 
the Gulf of Honduras at night through Sun night with seas 
building to near 8 ft. Moderate to fresh winds elsewhere in the 
central and eastern Caribbean will diminish to gentle to 
moderate speeds Mon and continue through the remainder forecast 
period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary boundary extends from 31N48W to 24N71W, with the 
tail end beginning to dissipate. Earlier convection near the 
Bahamas has greatly subsided this evening with only scattered 
weak convection remaining from 23N to 29N between 71W and 77W. 
Winds are generally gentle to moderate from the E-SE throughout 
the western and central Atlantic with 3-6 ft seas. In the 
eastern Atlantic, the gradient between high pressure near the 
Azores and lower pressure over North Africa continues to support 
fresh to strong NE winds and 7-10 ft seas east of 40W and north 
of 20N. A recent scatterometer pass confirmed the strongest 
winds are occurring in the gaps between the Canary Islands. In 
the tropics, south of 20N, winds are generally moderate from the 
NE with 5-6 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the weakening stationary front 
will dissipate on Sun. A cold front is forecast to reach the 
north-central waters Sun night and exit the area by Tue evening. 
Otherwise, surface ridging will dominate the remainder of the 
forecast period.

$$ 
Flynn