000
AXNT20 KNHC 122300
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat May 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits Africa near 10N14.5W and extends to
07N17W. The ITCZ begins at 07N17W and continues to 03N28W to 
04N36W. A surface trough is analyzed from 09N41W to 01N40W, with
no well defined ITCZ t its west. Scattered to numerous moderate 
to strong convection is S of 07N between 00W and 35W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted 04.5N to 07N between 38W and 51W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Most of the Gulf of Mexico is dominated by a modest ridge 
extending from a 1027 mb Bermuda high pressure center. Low 
pressure extends from N central Mexico to just inland of Veracruz. 
The pressure gradient created between the ridge and the low is 
supporting moderate to fresh SE winds over the western Gulf, west
of 88W and north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are 5 to 8 feet
due to this sustained southeasterly flow. Peak seas are noted 
from 23N to 27N between 91W and 95W. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds
are noted across the eastern Gulf, where seas are 3 to 5 ft except
2 ft across the Florida Big Bend. Active afternoon convection is
occurring across surrounding land areas, but not generally over
the Gulf waters. Strong thunderstorms across western Cuba have
begun to move westward across the Yucatan channel and adjacent
Straits of Florida. 

Smoke from agricultural fires is covering portions of the SW 
Gulf. The latest SAB analysis indicated a medium concentration of 
smoke over the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. 
Weather observations along the coast of Mexico also indicate the 
presence of haze.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will continue to dominate 
the Gulf waters during the next several days producing gentle to 
moderate E to SE winds E of 90W and moderate to fresh return flow 
W of 90W. Winds are forecast to increase to fresh to strong speeds
over the western Gulf tonight into Sat with seas building to 8 
ft. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and to the NW of
the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Sat night. Then, winds 
are forecast to veer to the E across most of the basin by late Sun
into Mon as high pressure settles over the northern Gulf. Moderate
to locally rough seas will prevail, reaching 7 or 8 ft in the NW 
Gulf through Sun under the persisting SE wind flow. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Surface ridging associated with the Bermuda high extends to the 
NE Gulf of Mexico, and continues to support moderate to fresh E 
to SE winds across the central, southwest and Gulf of Honduras 
basin, except for fresh to strong NE winds off Colombia. Seas are 
4 to 7 ft in these regions, with the highest seas in the Colombian
basin of 8 to 10 ft. Elsewhere in the NW Caribbean, and east of 
70W, trade winds are gentle to moderate with seas of 3 to 5 ft. 
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed over the 
coastal waters of Costa Rica and Nicaragua, and extend NW and well
inland across Nicaragua and Honduras.

Smoke from agricultural fires is covering portions of the NW 
Gulf, and has been most dense across the Gulf of Honduras this
afternoon. The latest SAB analysis indicated a medium 
concentration of smoke over the Gulf of Honduras region.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to 
rough seas are expected in the south-central Caribbean, including 
the Gulf of Venezuela, tonight and Sat, then mainly fresh winds 
will prevail. Fresh to strong E winds are also forecast in the 
Gulf of Honduras at night through Sat night with seas building to 
near 8 ft. Fresh NE to E winds may briefly develop in the Windward
Passage tonight. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from the central Atlantic near 31N50W to 
near 25.5N60W where the boundary becomes stationary, extending WSW
to the north- central coast of Cuba along 78W. Scattered showers 
and moderate thunderstorms are within 90 nm of the stationary 
front, including over the central Bahamas. Moderate to fresh NE 
winds and seas to 6 ft are N of the front to 27N, as high pressure
is filling in. Winds shift to mainly E moderate breezes north of 
27N and west of 70W to the FL peninsula. Ahead of the cold front, 
recent scatterometer data found gentle to moderate S-SE winds 
north of 25N and west of 45W. Gentle E winds are noted south of 
25N and west of 45W. Elsewhere south of 20N, mainly moderate 
trades prevail. Seas over the central Atlantic are 4 to 6 ft. 

Farther east, the pressure gradient between a 1029 mb high over 
the Azores and lower pressure over Western Sahara supports an 
area of fresh to strong NE winds from 22N to 31N between 30W and 
the coast of Africa. Winds are gusting between the Canary 
Islands and may be reaching speeds near-gale force. Seas are 8 
to 10 ft in this region.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will remain nearly 
stationary on Sat and lift N to near 25N on Sun while gradually 
dissipating. A surface trough is forecast to persist over the 
central Bahamas on Mon. High pressure building over the western 
Atlantic in the wake of the front will bring moderate to fresh E 
winds across the waters E of the Bahamas tonight into Sat. The 
high pressure will shift SE toward the NE corner of the forecast 
area on Sun producing gentle to moderate E to SE winds. A cold 
front could reach the north waters late on Mon or Mon night.

$$
Stripling