000
AXNT20 KNHC 121703
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri May 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1610 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland of the African continent. The 
ITCZ begins just offshore Guinea near 10N15W and continues to 
04N20W to 03N30W and to 04N36W. A surface trough is west of the 
ITCZ stretching from 08N40W to 01N38W. Numerous moderate to 
strong convection is from 02N to 07N between 10W and 25W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 240 nm of the ITCZ 
between 27W and 36W. Similar convection is noted around the 
surface trough, north of the equator.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Most of the Gulf of Mexico is dominated by a modest ridge 
extending from a 1026 mb high pressure centered NW of Bermuda. A 
1006 mb low pressure center is located in the SW Bay of 
Campeche. The pressure gradient created between the ridge and 
the low is supporting fresh winds over the western Gulf, west of 
90W and north of the Yucatan Peninsula, where seas are 5 to 7 
feet. Peak seas are noted from 23N to 26N between 90W and 94W. 
Moderate winds are noted in recent observations across the 
eastern Gulf, where seas are 2 to 4 ft. Otherwise, upper level 
diffluent flow is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms 
over the SE Gulf and north of the Yucatan Channel. 

Smoke from agricultural fires may be covering portions of the SW 
Gulf. The latest SAB analysis indicated a medium concentration 
of smoke over the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. 
Weather observations along the coast of Mexico also indicate the 
presence of haze.

For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf 
waters during the next several days producing gentle to moderate 
E to SE winds E of 90W and moderate to fresh return flow W of 
90W. Winds are forecast to increase to fresh to strong speeds 
over the western Gulf tonight into Sat with seas building to 8 ft.
Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and to the NW of 
the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Sun night. Then, winds 
are forecast to veer to the E across most of the basin by late Sun
as high pressure settles over the northern Gulf. Slight to 
moderate seas will prevail, reaching 7 or 8 ft in the NW Gulf 
through Sun under a persisting SE wind flow. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Surface ridging associated with both the Bermuda and Azores high 
extends to the northern Caribbean and supports the continuation 
of moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the central, southwest 
and Gulf of Honduras basin, except for fresh to strong NE winds 
off Colombia. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in these regions, with the 
highest seas in the Colombian basin racing heights of 7 to 9 ft. 
Elsewhere in the NW Caribbean, and east of 70W, trade winds are 
gentle to moderate with seas of 3 to 5 ft.  Isolated showers and 
thunderstorms are observed over waters between Cuba and 
Hispaniola due to a stationary front stretching over the 
southern Bahamas.

Smoke from agricultural fires may be covering portions of the NW 
Gulf. The latest SAB analysis indicated a medium concentration of 
smoke over the Gulf of Honduras region. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to 
rough seas are expected mainly at night in the south-central 
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, through tonight, 
then mainly fresh winds will prevail. Fresh to strong E winds 
are also forecast in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Sat 
night, with seas building to near 8 ft. Fresh NE to E winds may 
briefly develop in the Windward Passage tonight. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N51W to near 24N65W where the 
boundary becomes stationary, extending WSW to the north-central 
coast of Cuba. Showers and thunderstorms are within 90 nm of the 
stationary front, including over the central Bahamas. Moderate 
to fresh NE winds and seas to 5 ft are behind the front due to 
high pressure filling in. Winds shift to mainly E moderate 
breezes north of 25N and west of 70W to the FL peninsula. Ahead 
of the cold front, recent scatterometer data found gentle to 
moderate S-SE winds north of 25N and west of 40W. Gentle E winds 
are noted south of 25N and west of 45W. Elsewhere south of 25N, 
mainly moderate trades prevail. Seas over the central Atlantic 
are 4 to 6 ft. 

Farther east, the pressure gradient between a 1029 mb high over 
the Azores and lower pressure over Western Sahara supports an 
area of fresh to strong NE winds from 22N to 31N between 30W and 
the coast of Africa. Winds are gusting between the Canary 
Islands and may be reaching speeds near-gale force. Seas are 8 
to 10 ft in this region.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will persist on Sat 
and lift N on Sun while dissipating. 
Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas will 
follow the front today. High pressure building over the western 
Atlantic in the wake of the front will bring moderate to fresh E 
winds across the waters E of the Bahamas tonight into Sat. The 
high pressure will shift SE toward the NE corner of the forecast 
area on Sun producing gentle to moderate E to SE winds. 

$$ 

Mora