683 
AXNT20 KNHC 112307
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri May 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2240 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits W Africa near 07N12W and extends to 
05N16W. The ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 05N16W to 
00N30W to 00.5S43W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is 
noted from 00N to 06N between 05W and 21W. Widely scattered 
moderate convection is from 01.5N to 07N between 27W and 52W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Low pressure associated with a frontal boundary over SE Colorado
and NE New Mexico extends southward across Texas and eastern Mexico
to inland of Veracruz. A 1025 mb Bermuda High centered offshore 
of Cape Hatteras extends a modest ridge southwestward into the 
Gulf. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the low 
pressure over Mexico is producing SE return flow across the entire
Gulf basin, with moderate to fresh winds W of 88W and gentle to
moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft W of 88W
and 1 to 3 ft to the E of 88W. Widely scattered moderate 
convection dots central portions of the basin, occurring ahead of 
a middle to upper level trough moving eastward across the NW 
Gulf. Satellite imagery this afternoon shows hazy skies across 
most of the Gulf created by smoke from agricultural fires across 
Mexico and Central America. The most dense smoke and visibilities 
5 nm and less spread from the Bay of Campeche NNW to the Texas 
coastal waters.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will continue to dominate 
the Gulf waters during the next several days producing gentle to 
moderate E to SE winds E of 90W and moderate to fresh return flow 
W of 90W. Winds are forecast to increase to fresh to strong speeds
over the western Gulf Fri night into Sat as low pressure develops
over western Texas. Seas are expected to build to 8 ft. Fresh to 
locally strong winds will pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan 
Peninsula each night through Sat night. Then, winds are forecast 
to veer to the E across most of the basin by late Sun as high 
pressure settles over the northern Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Bermuda High is centered north of the region, and offshore of
Cape Hatteras this afternoon. However, a lingering frontal
boundary across the Atlantic extends southwestward to the SE 
Bahamas and is limiting the pressure gradient across the 
Caribbean. This pattern is producing moderate to fresh trade winds
across the central and northwest portions of the basin, where 
seas are 4 to 7 ft, except 8 to 9 ft offshore of Colombia. Trade 
winds E of 68W are gentle to moderate with seas of 3 to 6 ft. No 
significant convection is presently across the basin. Hazy skies 
prevail across the Gulf of Honduras and extend into the SE Yucatan
Peninsula, due to smoke from ongoing agricultural fires over 
Guatemala and Honduras.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to 
rough seas are expected mainly at night in the south-central 
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela through Sat night, as
the Atlantic ridge remains N of 30N. Fresh to strong E winds are 
also expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Sat night 
with seas building to 8 ft. Fresh NE to E winds may briefly 
develop in the lee of southern Cuba and the Windward Passage Fri 
night. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A front has become nearly stationary from 31N55W to the SE Bahamas
along 74W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection continues
along and within 210 nm SE of the front, and N of 21N. High
pressure north of the front is supporting moderate to locally 
fresh winds mainly N of 28N, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to
fresh S to SW winds are found within 180 nm E of the front and N
of 24N, where seas are also 4 to 6 ft. Surface ridging associated
with the Azores High dominate the remaining subtropical central 
and eastern Atlantic waters with moderate to fresh NE winds,
except strong to near gale force surrounding the Azores. Seas
there are 6 to 9 ft. Further south, moderate N to NE winds
generally prevail E of 35W, while moderate to locally fresh ENE
trade winds prevail across the tropical Atlantic south of 13N and
into the Lesser Antilles. Seas there are 5 to 7 ft. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will drift
slightly SE tonight and extend from near 27N55W to the SE Bahamas
by Fri morning. The front will persist through Sat and dissipate 
across the waters W of 60W on Sun. Moderate to locally fresh NE to
E winds will follow the front with seas briefly building to 8 ft 
over the NE waters on Fri. Otherwise, easterly winds will freshen 
E of the Bahamas and in the Great Bahama Bank Fri night into Sat 
night as high pressure off the Carolinas strengthens. The high 
pressure will shift SE toward the NE corner of the forecast area 
on Sun producing gentle to moderate E to SE winds across area
waters.

$$
Stripling