000 AXNT20 KNHC 092217 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed May 10 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale-force wind warning for the eastern Atlantic. Meteo-France has issued a warning for gale force NE winds between the Canary Islands until 10/1200 UTC. Refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast at https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coastal border of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 08N18W. The ITCZ continues from 08N18W to 03N30W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from the equator to 05N between 10W and 17W. The remainder of the ITCZ region is dominated by scattered weak convection from the equator to 06N. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1014 mb low pressure center is located over SE Texas near 31N95W. This feature is generating numerous showers and thunderstorms along the Texas and Louisiana offshore waters north 27N and west of 92W. A 1019 mb high pressure center is located in the NE Gulf near 29N85W. Winds are light to gentle in the NE Gulf, increasing to moderate E to SE winds across the remainder of the basin. Seas are 1-3 ft in the NE Gulf and 4-6 ft in the SW Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure extending from the western Atlantic to the central Gulf will prevail through the forecast period. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Sat night. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will prevail E of 90W with moderate to fresh return flow W of 90W increasing to fresh to locally strong during the weekend. Slight to moderate seas are expected basin- wide through Sat night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean is moderate to fresh easterly winds across the eastern and central Caribbean, with strong winds in the south-central Caribbean. Winds are gentle to moderate in the NW Caribbean. Seas are 4-6 ft in the eastern Caribbean, 6-9 ft in the central Caribbean, and 1-3 ft in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the south-central and portions of the southeast Caribbean through Wed night. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds will strengthen to fresh to strong speeds in the Gulf of Honduras Wed night and continue through Sat night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about a Gale-Force Wind Warning in the METEO-FRANCE forecast area. A surface ridge along 27N dominates the pattern in the western Atlantic. Winds are light within the ridge axis, increasing to gentle to moderate SW winds north 30N and gentle to moderate SE winds south of 24N. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range west of 60W. In the central and eastern Atlantic, the subtropical ridge extends to a 1031 mb high near the Azores, maintaining the gradient with lower pressure over NW Africa. This is supporting strong NE winds north of 26N and east of 21W, where seas are in the 8-12 ft range. Moderate to fresh NE winds are noted throughout the remainder of the eastern Atlantic with 6-8 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will reach the NE Florida offshore waters Wed and extend from near 31N68W to the northern Bahamas Thu morning before weakening over the far eastern part of the area Fri and Fri night. Moderate to fresh winds will precede and follow the front as it moves across the region. $$ Flynn