000
AXNT20 KNHC 091729
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue May 09 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale-Force Wind Warning from 35W eastward:

The marine forecast from the Meteo-France consists of
a warning for N-to-NE gale-force winds, in the marine
zone CANARIAS, until 10/1200 UTC.
Please, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast,
that is on the website, https://wwmiws.wmo.int, for
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough curves through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues
from 03N20W, to 01N31W and 04N44W. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 03N southward between
07W and 17W. Disorganized widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is elsewhere to the south of the line
that is from SW coastal Senegal, to 08N40W and 08N55W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is in the coastal plains of Texas.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 26N northward from 91W westward. 
Similar precipitation is inland, from 29N to 31N
between the coast of Texas and 99W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the area,
from the NE corner into the SW corner. A 1020 mb
high pressure center is inland in south central Florida.
A 1019 mb high pressure center is in SW Georgia.

Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are in in the eastern
half of the area. Moderate to fresh return flow is in
the western half of the area. The sea heights range from:
5 feet from the central sections to the Yucatan Peninsula;
from 1 foot to 2 feet in the NE corner; and from 3 feet
to 4 feet elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico. 

High pressure extending from the western Atlantic to
the central Gulf will prevail through the forecast period.
Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and to the
NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Sat night.
Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will prevail E of 90W
with moderate to fresh return flow W of 90W likely
increasing to fresh to locally strong during the weekend.
Slight to moderate seas are expected basin-wide
through Sat night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong easterly winds are in the central sections
of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh winds are in the eastern
one-third of the area. Moderate and slower wind speeds
are in the western one-third of the area. The sea heights
range from 6 feet to 8 feet in general in the south
central sections. A maximum value of 9 feet is off the
coast of the Peninsula de la Guajira of Colombia. The sea
heights range from 4 feet to 5 feet elsewhere from 80W
eastward. The sea heights are reaching 3 feet in the
NW corner. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 2 feet
in the SW corner.

Fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas are
expected in the south-central and portions of the southeast
Caribbean through Wed night. Moderate to fresh E to SE
winds will strengthen to fresh to strong speeds in the Gulf
of Honduras Wed night and continue through Sat night.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information
about a Gale-Force Wind Warning in the METEO-FRANCE 
forecast area. 

A surface ridge passes through 31N34W 28N49W 26N63W,
to a 1020 mb south central Florida high pressure center.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong, is
from 20N northward from 26W westward. The precipitation
is in the areas of continually-weakening and left-over
instability, from an earlier frontal boundary.

The sea heights are ranging from 10 feet to 11 feet from
26N northward from 20W eastward. The sea heights range
from 6 feet to 9 feet, elsewhere, from 20N northward from
40W eastward; and from 20N southward between 40W and 60W.
The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet, elsewhere,
from 60W eastward. The sea heights range from 2 feet to
5 feet from 65W westward.

Near gale-force to gale-force winds are from 27N northward
from 20W eastward. Fresh NE winds are to the south of the
line 31N20W 26N40W 21N60W. Moderate or slower wind speeds
are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front will reach the NE Florida offshore waters
Wed and extend from near 31N68W to the northern Bahamas 
Thu morning before weakening over the far eastern part
of the area Fri and Fri night. Moderate to fresh winds
will precede and follow the front as it moves across
the region. 

$$
mt/al