000 AXNT20 KNHC 072040 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon May 8 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning E of 35W: Meteo-France has issued a gale warning for the forecast zone of Agadir near the coast of W Africa. The forecast calls for northerly gales to 40 kt with severe gusts through 08/0300 UTC. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 10N15W to 03N26W. The ITCZ continues from 03N26W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 13W and 29W, and S of 09N between 50W and 55W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is over the SW Gulf, with high pressure prevailing elsewhere. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the Gulf of Mexico. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range west of 90W, and 2-4 ft east of 90W. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night and into the early morning hours through Thu night due to local effects related to a thermal trough. Otherwise, high pressure extending from the western Atlantic to the central Gulf will continue through the forecast period allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas, with the exception of moderate to fresh southeast to south winds over the western Gulf through Tue night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to locally strong winds are noted off the coast of Colombia and Venezuela. Mainly moderate winds are elsewhere east of 80W, with gentle to moderate winds west of 80W. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range in the south central Caribbean, 4-6 ft in the north central Caribbean and eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft over the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, the pressure difference between high pressure N of the area and lower pressure in NW Colombian will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the south- central Caribbean through Wed night. Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh east winds are forecast in the Gulf of Honduras through Wed. These winds will begin to pulse to fresh to strong speeds at night starting Wed night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N43W to the SE Bahamas. Scattered convection is noted within 90 nm east of the boundary. Light to gentle winds are noted N of 20N between 50W and 60W. Moderate to fresh winds generally prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range N of 29N between 35W and 42W, S of 12N between 40W and 55W, and from 16N to 22N east of 31W. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong east winds south of 27N and west of 73W will diminish to moderate speeds on Mon as high pressure centered off the southeastern U.S. shifts east- southeast and weakens. A stationary front extending from 26N55W to near the Turks and Caicos Islands will weaken through Tue. A cold front will move off the Mid-Atlantic coast Tue, reach the forecast waters northeast of northern Florida early on Wed and from near 31N62W to 27N67W and continuing as a stationary front to eastern Cuba by late Thu. The cold front will weaken over the far eastern part of the area Fri and Fri night. It will be followed by moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds. $$ AL