512 
AXNT20 KNHC 061739
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat May 06 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale-Force Wind Warning from 35W eastward:

The marine forecast from the Meteo-France consists of
a warning for northerly gale-force winds, in the marine
zone AGADIR, from 06/1500 UTC until 07/1200 UTC. Please,
refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast, that is
on the website, https://wwmiws.wmo.int, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains
of SW Guinea, to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W,
to 05N24W, 06N28W 05N38W 02N50W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm
to the north of the ITCZ, and within 120 nm to the
south of the ITCZ between 20W and 52W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the area,
from the NE corner into the SW corner.

A stationary front passes through SE Louisiana to
the offshore waters of the Florida Panhandle.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely strong
is within 120 nm of the coast between the Florida
Panhandle and SE Louisiana.

Gentle to moderate return flow covers the area.
An exception is for moderate to fresh NE to E winds
off the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The sea
heights are reaching 2 feet in the eastern half of
the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights range from
2 feet to 4 feet in the western half of the Gulf
of Mexico.

Hazy conditions, and areas of smoke from agricultural
fires, may be covering parts of the southern two-thirds
of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the western half of the
Gulf, and interior sections of Central America from
Honduras to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico.

Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and
to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night into
the early morning hours through Mon night due to
local effects related to a thermal trough.
Otherwise, high pressure will dominate the Gulf
waters through the forecast period producing gentle
to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas,
with the exception of moderate to fresh SE to S winds
in the western Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are in the Caribbean Sea
from 16N southward between 64W and 78W. Near gale-force
winds, and sea heights that range from 8 feet to 12 feet,
are off the coast of Colombia and NW Venezuela. Moderate
to fresh winds, and sea heights that range from 5 feet
to 7 feet, are elsewhere from 78W eastward. Gentle to
moderate NE to E winds, and sea heights that range from
4 feet to 6 feet, are from 78W westward. An exception
is sea heights that range from 2 feet to 3 feet in the
lee of Cuba. Fresh to strong easterly winds, and sea
heights that range from 5 feet to 7 feet, are in the
Gulf of Honduras.

An Atlantic Ocean stationary front is along 25N61W to
22N72W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally 
strong is from the front to the Greater Antilles, 
including in the Windward Passage. 

A surface trough is along 77W/78W from 19N to 28N.
The trough extends from parts of the Bahamas to
the Caribbean Sea waters that are off the coast
of SE Cuba. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from the Bahamas to Cuba.  

The pressure difference between high pressure N of
the area and lower pressure in NW Colombian will
support fresh to strong trade winds in the
south central Caribbean Sea, including in the Gulf of
Venezuela, through early next week. Moderate to fresh
E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras through
Wed. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 77W/78W from 19N to 28N.
The trough extends from parts of the Bahamas to
the Caribbean Sea waters that are off the coast
of SE Cuba. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from Cuba northward from 70W
westward.  

A cold front passes through 31N47W to 29N50W 25N61W.
The front is stationary front from 25N61W to 22N72W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
is to the northwest of the line that passes through
31N38W, to the eastern part of the Dominican Republic. 

Moderate to fresh NW to N winds, and sea heights that
range from 8 feet to 12 feet, are in NW swell behind
the front. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds cover the 
waters elsewhere from 70W westward. The remainder of
the central and the eastern subtropical Atlantic Ocean
i is under the influence of ridge from a 1026 mb high
pressure center that is to the south of the Azore
Islands near 32N26W. The surface pressure gradient
that is between the surface ridge, and comparatively
lower pressure in NW Africa, is supporting fresh to
locally strong NE winds, and sea heights that range
from 8 feet to 11 feet, from 14N northward from 30W
eastward of 14N and E of 30W. Fresh NE winds, and 
sea heights that range from 6 feet to 9 feet,
generally are elsewhere from 20N southward. 

A surface trough extending across the north-central
Bahamas will drift westward today. An area of fresh to
strong E winds to the N and NE of it will shift westward
to the NW Bahamas and to waters adjacent northern and
central Florida. The trough will begin to weaken late
this afternoon and into this evening. The fresh to
strong E winds will shift southward from the Bahamas 
to waters adjacent South Florida tonight through late
Sun. A cold front extending from 31N48W to near the
Turks and Caicos Islands will drift SE, reaching from
25N55W to the N coast of Hispaniola near 20N71W by
this evening while weakening. NW swell producing 
seas to 10 ft will follow the front N of 28N and
E of 65W through early this evening while subsiding.
High pressure will build over the western Atlantic
in the wake of the front through the early part of
the upcoming week allowing for winds to diminish
to gentle to moderate speeds.

$$
mt/ja