000
AXNT20 KNHC 041750
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu May 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1730 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Africa near 14N17W, then continues SW to near 12N19W. The ITCZ 
extends from 12N19W to 05N30W to the coast of Brazil near 
00N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N 
between 24W and 31W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging from high pressure over the lower 
Mississippi Valley keeps quiet conditions in place over the 
Gulf. Light to gentle E winds are over the northern and eastern 
Gulf, east of 90W, where seas are 1 to 2 ft. Winds increase to 
moderate speeds west of 90W, including west of the Yucatan 
Peninsula, where seas are mainly 3 ft. Winds of moderate speeds 
or less shift to ESE north of 24N and west of 95W. 

Smoke from agricultural fires may be covering portions of the SW 
Gulf. The latest SAB analysis indicated a medium concentration 
of smoke over the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. 
Weather observations along the coast of Mexico also indicate the 
presence of haze.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the 
Gulf waters for the remainder of the week, producing mainly 
gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Fresh to 
locally strong winds will pulse near and to the NW of the 
Yucatan Peninsula each night into the early morning hours during 
the forecast period due to local effects related to a thermal 
trough. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Satellite-derived wind data provide observations of fresh to 
strong winds over the south-central Caribbean, south of 16N 
between 65W and 80W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft near the coast of 
Colombia. Similar wind speeds are near the. Moderate to fresh 
trade winds dominate the remainder of the east and central 
Caribbean, where seas are generally 4 to 6 ft. In the NW 
Caribbean, gentle to moderate winds are noted, with seas of 2 to 
4 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and 2 to 3 ft elsewhere.

The easternmost extension of the east Pacific monsoon trough 
assists in forming patchy clouds and showers offshore Colombia 
and Panama, mainly south of 12N.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area combined with the 
Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds in the 
south-central and SE Caribbean through Mon night, with seas 
building to 10 ft during the weekend. Winds will also pulse to 
fresh to strong nightly in the Gulf of Honduras tonight through 
Fri night. Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected in the 
Windward Passage Fri night through Mon night, briefly increasing 
to strong speeds Sun night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds 
will prevail.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the W Atlantic from east of Bermuda 
to the southern Bahamas. Moderate to fresh NW winds are behind 
the front, becoming gentle to moderate speeds south of 28N. Seas 
remain elevated, ranging from 6 to 9 ft, with heights above 10 
ft north of 29N and east of 70W. A band of showers and 
thunderstorms is within 210 nm ahead of the cold front. East of 
the cold front, a pressure gradient from high pressure ridging 
supports fresh to strong SW winds north of 27N and west of 50W. 

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is influenced by a 
1027 mb high pressure near 28N31W. Light and variable winds are 
near the high center. Fresh NE winds are noted along the 
southern periphery of the Atlantic ridge, including north of the 
Cabo Verde Islands to 25N and south fo 20N and east of 55W. Seas 
of 6 to 8 ft are within these winds. Mainly moderate trades 
dominate the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. Northerly swell 
continues to propagate across the waters E of 50W, with seas of 
7 to 9 ft. 

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will 
continue to propagate SE, reaching from 31N56W to the southern 
Bahamas by Fri morning. The tail of this front is forecast to 
stall in the Turks and Caicos Fri night and then transition back 
to a cold front Sat before reaching Hispaniola Sat night into 
Sun. Fresh to strong winds remain on either side of the 
boundary, mainly N of 28N with seas of 8 to 10 ft. These marine 
conditions will persist today as the front moves SE over the 
forecast waters. In the wake of the front, weak high pressure 
will rebuild over the SE US, bringing light winds to the far 
western Atlantic later today. Looking ahead, a weak low pressure 
may develop off the SE US by Sun. 

$$
Mora