000
AXNT20 KNHC 040530
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu May 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N18W to 05N24W. The
ITCZ continues from that point to 02S44W. Scattered showers are
noted in the vicinity of the ITCZ mainly W of 40W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the Florida peninsula reaching
the eastern Gulf waters along 26N and E of 85W. High pressure
prevails across most of the basin, centered near 28N89W. A 
surface trough extends over the Yucatan peninsula. Light to 
gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are present across the eastern 
Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are 
seen over the western Gulf.

Both GeoColor satellite imagery and coastal observations of
visibility down to 3 to 5 nm reveal moderate haze or smoke over 
the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche due to 
agricultural fires. Mariners navigating in these areas should
exercise caution.

For the forecast, the tail end of the Atlantic front across E 
Gulf will dissipate through Thu. High pressure will dominate the 
Gulf waters the remainder of the week producing mainly gentle to 
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Fresh to locally 
strong winds will pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan 
Peninsula each night into the early morning hours during the 
forecast period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Mid-Atlantic surface ridge north of the basin continues to 
support a relatively fair trade-wind pattern across much of the 
basin. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are 
evident at the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE 
winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are noted at the north-central basin. 
Gentle to moderate E to ESE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail 
over the rest of the basin. Persistent WSW to W winds at the 
upper levels are carrying thick cirrus caused by afternoon 
thunderstorms over Honduras across the northwestern basin.

For the forecast, the high pressure N of the area combined with 
the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trade 
winds in the south-central Caribbean through the week, with rough 
seas building to 11 ft during the weekend. Moderate to fresh NE 
winds are expected in the Windward Passage beginning Fri night. 
Winds will also pulse to fresh to strong nightly in the Gulf of 
Honduras. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the W Atlantic from 31N72W to 28N76W
then continues as a stationary front to 27N80W. A surface trough
is analyzed E of the front from 30N69W to 23N76W. Convergent 
surface winds south of the front/trough are producing scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms southern Bahamas. To the east,
another surface trough is analyzed from 23N47W to 16N57W with no
significant convection. A 1025 mb high is centered near 28N33W and
extending across the remainder of the basin.

Fresh to strong westerly winds and seas at 8 to 11 ft are evident
behind the cold front north of 28N between the front and 79W. 
Gentle to moderate W to SW winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are noted 
from the northwest Bahamas northward to beyond 31N between 79W 
and the Florida-Georgia coast. Moderate with fresh SW winds and 6
to 9 ft seas are found east of the front north of 25N between 50W
and the front. Light to gentle winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft in 
large northerly swell are noted near the 1025 mb Atlantic High, 
north of 22N between 30W and 55W. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde 
Islands, moderate to fresh NNE to NE trades with 4 to 7 ft seas 
are noted north of 14N between the African coast and 30W. To the 
west, gentle to moderate NE to E trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft are 
found from 05N to 21N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Light 
to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of
the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the western Atlantic cold front
extending will continue to propagate SE, reaching from 31N62W to 
the central Bahamas Thu morning. As the front progresses, fresh to
strong winds are expected on either side of the boundary through 
Thu, confined mostly north of 27N. In the wake of the front, weak 
high pressure will rebuild over the SE US, bringing light winds to
the far western Atlantic by Thu morning. Looking ahead, a weak 
low may develop off the SE US by Sun.

$$
ERA