000 AXNT20 KNHC 031021 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed May 3 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W, then continues SW to near 04N24W. The ITCZ extends from 04N24W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 15W and 24W, and from the Equator to 03N between 42W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weakening stationary front remains over the NE Gulf waters. A few showers are associated with the frontal boundary. A surface ridge dominates the remainder of the Gulf region while a surface trough is located just W of the Yucatan Peninsula. Recent scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh easterly winds related to this trough, covering the waters just N of the Yucatan Peninsula to about 24N between 87W and 91W. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are noted across the remainder of the eastern Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds and seas in the 3 to 5 ft range over the western Gulf. Smoke from agricultural fires may be covering portions of the SW Gulf. Latest SAB analysis indicated a medium concentration of smoke over the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the above mentioned weakening stationary front will dissipate today. High pressure will dominate the Gulf waters the remainder of the week producing mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula, expect pulsing fresh to locally strong winds each night into the early morning hours due to local effects induced by a thermal trough. This will persist most of the forecast period. CARIBBEAN SEA... Satellite derived winds data provide observations of fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean, with the strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 8 to 10 ft near the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh E winds dominate the remainder of the central Caribbean, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Similar wind speeds are observed in the Gulf of Honduras with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas of 3 to 5 ft, except over the western Caribbean, where seas are 2 to 3 ft. Multilayer clouds, with possible showers, extend from Guatemala and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula across the NW Caribbean into west-central Cuba and the Bahamas. This cloudiness is associated with strong SW winds aloft. Patches of low level clouds, embedded in the trade wind flow, are moving from the Atlantic across the Lesser Antilles into the eastern Caribbean producing isolated to scattered passing showers. A persistent mid to upper level anticyclone, now located over NW Venezuela, supports dry conditions over most of Venezuela and northern Colombia as well as over the central Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through the week, with seas building up to 11 or 12 ft during the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh E winds are expected S of Hispaniola. Winds will also pulse to fresh nightly in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from near Bermuda to Cape Canaveral, FL. Showers and thunderstorms are developing N of the front, particularly N of 30N between 70W and 77W. Fresh to strong SW to W winds are noted N of 30N between 66W and 81W per scatterometer data. Seas are 8 to 10 ft within these winds. A cold front crosses the Canary Islands generating some shower activity. The rest of the Atlantic is dominated by a 1020 mb high pressure located near 27N43W. This system extends a ridge toward the SE Bahamas where light to gentle winds prevail. An area of fresh NE winds persists from 18N to 22N between 45W and 51W. These winds are likely associated with the remnants of a shear line previously located in this region. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate the tropical Atlantic. Northerly swell continues to propagate across the waters E of 50W, with seas of 8 to 11 ft N of 26N based on an altimeter pass. For the forecast W of 55W, a reinforcing push of cold air will allow the stationary front to move across the N waters today. The cold front will reach from 31N70W to the NW Bahamas this evening, from 31N58W to the central Bahamas by Thu evening, and from 31N52W to the SE Bahamas by Fri evening. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are forecast on either side of the front through Thu. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, bringing light winds to the far western Atlantic by Thu. $$ GR