000 AXNT20 KNHC 030559 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed May 03 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of SW Guinea, to 04N24W. The continues from 04N24W, to the Equator along 32W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm to the south of the monsoon trough, and within 60 nm to the north of the monsoon trough, between 14W and 23W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 120 nm on either side of the rest of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. The GFS model for 250 mb shows a trough that passes through Suriname and French Guiana, to 24N37W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are within 720 nm to the east of the 250 mb trough. GULF OF MEXICO... A dissipating stationary front is along 29N80W, just to the east of Florida, toward SE Louisiana. A 1014 mb high pressure center is in the SE Gulf of Mexico near 24N83W. Comparatively lower surface pressure is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. This lower pressure is related to an interior Mexico NW-to-SE oriented surface trough. Areas of smoke are covering the inland sections of Central America, from the northern half of Nicaragua to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, and in parts of the SW Gulf of Mexico and the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights are reaching 4 feet off the coast of NE Mexico, and they are reaching 3 feet off the middle Texas Gulf coast. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 2 feet everywhere else in the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh SE-to-E winds are within 150 nm off the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate winds are elsewhere within 360 nm to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula between 86W and 93W. Gentle to moderate winds are everywhere else in the Gulf of Mexico. A weakening stationary front extending over the NE Gulf will dissipate on Wed. High pressure will dominate the Gulf waters the remainder of the week producing mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. The winds will pulse to fresh near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night into the early morning hours during the forecast period. CARIBBEAN SEA... Areas of smoke are covering the inland sections of Central America, from the northern half of Nicaragua to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, and in parts of the SW Gulf of Mexico and the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. NE Near gale-force winds are in the Gulf of Venezuela, and within 120 nm of the coast of Colombia between 72W and 74W. Strong NE winds are elsewhere within 300 nm of the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia between 67W and 77W. Fresh easterly winds are in the rest of the central one-third of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate easterly winds are in the rest of the area that is from 67W eastward. Strong E winds are within 60 nm of the coast of Honduras between 84W and 86W. Fresh E winds are elsewhere within 150 nm to the north of the coast of Honduras between 83W and 87W. Moderate easterly winds cover much of the rest of the Caribbean Sea that is from 80W westward. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet from 16N southward between 67W and 80W. The comparatively highest sea heights are offshore Colombia near 74W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 5 feet elsewhere from 80W eastward. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 3 feet from 80W westward. High pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean through the week with seas building up to 10 or 11 ft beginning on Fri. The winds will pulse to fresh nightly in the Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is along 31N66W to 30N72W, to 29N80W just to the east of Florida. The front is dissipating stationary, from 29N80W, toward SE Louisiana. Strong or faster W-to-SW winds are from the stationary front northward. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from 28N northward from 57W westward. A dissipating cold front is along 31N18W 23N30W 21N35W. A shear line continues from 21N35W to 19N48W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 180 nm to the east of the front from 25N northward. Rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, from 20N northward from 60W eastward. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 12 feet from 20N northward between 30W and 45W. The sea heights generally range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Mostly fresh to some strong winds are from 28N northward between 60W and 70W. Moderate winds are elsewhere from 26N northward between 60W and 70W. Mostly moderate to some fresh winds are from 26N northward between 35W and 60W. Mostly fresh to some strong winds are from 19N to 22N between 44W and 52W. Fresh NE winds are from 02N to 11N between 40W and 50W. Fresh NW winds are from 29N northward between 20W and 35W. Fresh NE winds are from 18N to 23N between 20W and 30W, and from 14N to 21N between 30W and 40W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A surface ridge is along 30N30W, to a 1020 mb high pressure center that is near 27N47W, to 20N60W, through the Greater Antilles, to a 1014 mb SE Gulf of Mexico high pressure center that is near 24N83W. A stationary front extends from near Bermuda to Cape Canaveral, FL. A reinforcing push of cold air will allow the front to move across the N waters beginning tonight. The front will reach from 31N70W to the NW Bahamas by Wed evening, and from 31N63W to the SE Bahamas by Thu morning. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected on either side of the front through Thu. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, bringing light winds to the far western Atlantic by Thu. $$ mt/gr