000 AXNT20 KNHC 022222 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed May 3 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 16N16W to 03N26W. The ITCZ continues from 03N26W to 00N37W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted south of 04N between 43W and 51W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weakening stationary front is draped over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico waters. Scattered light showers are over the NW Gulf north of 27.5N and west of 90.5W. A surface ridge extends from western Cuba to south-central Louisiana. Light to gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas are near this ridge. Moderate W winds and 2-3 ft seas prevail over the NE Gulf. Moderate E winds and 3-4 ft seas are found over the west-central and SW Gulf. Smoke from agricultural fires may be covering portions of the SW Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the central and NE Gulf of Mexico through the forecast period. As the gradient tightens with lower pressure over Mexico, SE return flow will increase to a fresh breeze in the western Gulf Thu night. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong near the Yucatan Peninsula each night during the forecast period due to a diurnal trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... A persistent mid to upper level anticyclone over the central Caribbean supports dry conditions over most of the basin. A surface ridge extending just N of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico is tightening the pressure gradient across the basin, allowing for fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean, where seas are 6 to 9 ft. Moderate winds are elsewhere over the central and eastern Caribbean, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are noted over the western Caribbean, where seas are 2 to 4 ft, except for the Gulf of Honduras, where fresh E winds and seas to 5 ft prevail. For the forecast, the gradient between a subtropical ridge and lower pressure over northern Colombia and Venezuela will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean through the week. The area of fresh to strong trades will expand across the southern Caribbean Fri through Sat night. Winds will also pulse to fresh nightly in the Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends off the coast of NE Florida from 31N71W to Cape Canaveral. No significant convection is associated with this boundary. Fresh to strong W winds are noted to the north of this boundary, while moderate to fresh SW winds are located south of the front and north of 27N, to the west of 65W. 7 to 10 ft seas in W swell are within the area of fresh to strong winds behind the boundary. The rest of the Atlantic is dominated by a 1020 mb high pressure center near 27N48W. Mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow surrounds the high. The exception is an area along a shear line that trails a dying cold front boundary. The shear line extends from 21N34W to 18N51W. Fresh NE winds likely prevail within 150 nm north of the shear line. Seas remain elevated, ranging from 6 to 12 ft in N swell north of 20N between 25W and 55W, highest near 31N35W. Elsewhere, seas are 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front will begin progressing SE tonight as a cold front and continue through the week, reaching from 31N62W to the central Bahamas by Thu morning, and from 31N55W to the SE Bahamas by Fri morning. In the northern waters, fresh to strong SW winds will precede the front through Fri. Behind the front, westerly winds will remain fresh to strong through Thu, before decreasing and shifting to moderate NW winds by Fri. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, bringing light to gentle winds to the far western Atlantic by Thu. $$ Hagen