000
AXNT20 KNHC 021646
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue May 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 16N16W 
to 10N21W and to 04N25W. The ITCZ continues from 04N25W to 
02N40W and to 00N50W. Scattered moderate is noted offshore 
Brazil, within 120 nm north of the ITCZ out to 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is draped over the northeastern Gulf of 
Mexico waters. No significant convection is associated with this 
boundary. Recent buoy observations depict gentle to moderate W 
winds and 2 to 4 ft seas in the NE Gulf, mainly north of 27N. 
The remainder of the Gulf is dominated by a weak ridge and SE 
moderate flow. Seas range from 3 to 5 ft. Recent satellite 
imagery reveals smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico over the 
SW Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf 
waters through the week. Fresh SE return flow will become 
established in the western Gulf Thu night. Winds will pulse to 
fresh near the Yucatan Peninsula each night during the forecast 
period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A persistent mid to upper level anticyclone over the central 
Caribbean supports dry conditions over most of the basin. A 
surface ridge extending to the Leeward islands is tightening the 
pressure gradient across the basin, allowing for fresh to strong 
winds off the coast of Colombia and  Venezuela, where seas are 6 
to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere over the central 
and eastern Caribbean, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to 
moderate winds are noted over the western Caribbean, where seas 
are 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds offshore of Colombia 
will continue through the rest of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front has emerged off the coast of NE Florida, 
extending from near 31N73W to New Smyrna Beach, FL. No 
significant convection is associated with this boundary. Fresh 
to strong W winds are noted behind the front and fresh to strong 
SW winds are noted ahead of the front north of 27N and west of 
65W. 6 to 9 ft seas in W swell are within the area of fresh to 
strong winds behind the boundary.

The rest of the Atlantic is dominated by a 1021 mb high pressure 
center near 28N48W. Mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow 
surrounds the high. The exception is an area along a shear line 
that trails a dying cold front boundary. The shear line extends 
from 20N40W to 18N51W. Fresh to strong NE winds were captured on 
a scatterometer pass within 150 nm north of the shear line. Seas 
remain elevated, ranging from 6 to 9 ft in N swell north of 20N 
between 25W and 55W, from the passing of the now dying cold 
front. Elsewhere, seas are 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front in the SW Atlantic 
will continue progressing through the week, reaching from 31N62W 
to the central Bahamas by Thu morning, and from 31N55W to the SE 
Bahamas by Fri morning. In the northern waters, fresh to strong SW
winds will precede the front through Fri. Behind the front, westerly
winds will be fresh to strong through Thu, before decreasing and 
shifting to moderate NW winds by Fri. High pressure will build in 
the wake of the front, bringing light winds to the far western 
Atlantic by Thu.

$$
Mora