000 AXNT20 KNHC 302349 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon May 1 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A cold front extending from 31N76W SW to the NW Caribbean near 19N85W at 2100 UTC will continue to support strong to gale-force SW winds across the western Atlantic and ahead of the front through tonight. This area will cover the region N of 27N between 65W and the front. Behind the front, winds will be fresh to strong towards the Florida coastal waters. Currently, seas N of the Bahamas and W of 66W are in the 8-14 ft range and will gradually diminish to 10 ft by sunrise on Mon. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on these warnings. NW Caribbean and Yucatan Channel Dense Smoke: Dense smoke prevails in the Gulf of Honduras and it is also being reported in the Yucatan Channel. Middle to upper level winds from the SW are dispersing this smoke across most of the NW Caribbean and the Florida Straits. Visibility in these regions may be 3 nm or less. Mariners are urged to exercise caution if traversing this area. These conditions are expected to continue the next couple of days. Please see the Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.html for more information. Of note: Fires burned off and on throughout southern Mexico and central America in April and early May, during the regions annual dry season. Fires create a lot of smoke. The smoke mixed with the haze creates a smoky atmosphere. During this time of the year, we can see dense smoke potentially affecting mariners, especially in the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras and the Gulf of Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W to 06N22W. The ITCZ continues from 06N22W to 01N29W to 01N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the offshore waters of Cote d'Ivoire and Liberia, Africa. Widely scattered showers are elsewhere from 03S to 05N between 30W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... Low pressure associated with the passage of a cold front dominates the eastern half of the basin. Moderate to fresh NW winds cover most of the waters E of 90W, except for fresh to strong W winds mostly along the coasts from Panama City to Cedar Key, Florida. Seas are 8 to 9 ft in this region. Over the western half of the basin, a 1014 mb high centered off the coast of Tampico, Mexico is providing light to gentle variable winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, strong winds in the far northeastern Gulf will diminish tonight. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, and become centered over the eastern Gulf Mon through Wed. Fresh winds will pulse across the Bay of Campeche each night through the forecast period. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Dense Smoke in the NW Caribbean. A cold front is in the NW Caribbean extending from Playa Giron, Cuba SW to 18N86W at 2100 UTC. This front is supporting a line of heavy showers and thunderstorms ahead of it and reaching as far as central Cuba coastal and offshore waters. Gust to gale force winds are possible within this area of thunderstorms as well as low visibility. In the SW Caribbean, an active E Pacific monsoon trough is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms S of 13N. In terms of winds, moderate to fresh northerly winds follow the front in the NW Caribbean while moderate to fresh trades dominate the eastern half of the basin. Seas basin-wide are in the 3-5 ft range, highest in the Yucatan Channel and SE Caribbean waters. For the forecast, fresh to strong W to NW winds offshore the Gulf of Honduras will continue through tonight and transport dense smoke from agricultural fires across the NW Caribbean waters. The cold front will reach from central Cuba to the eastern Gulf of Honduras on Mon, where it will stall and dissipate by Tue. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse offshore of Colombia Mon night and continue through the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Western Atlantic. Please see the Special Features section for more information. For the forecast W of 55W, the front will gradually weaken and dissipate on Tue. The next front, weaker in intensity, may move across the northern waters by mid-week. $$ Ramos