000 AXNT20 KNHC 300003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Apr 30 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2340 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from SE Mississippi near 30N89W SW to the central Bay of Campeche at 2100 UTC. Ahead of the front, a squall line extends from Cedar Key, Florida SW to the northern Yucatan Peninsula offshore waters. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are along this line and its vicinity affecting the visibility in a great portion of the SE Gulf of Mexico. Gust to gale force winds are also likely associated with this feature. Strong to gale-force NW winds are expected immediately behind the front through early this evening. However, strong to near gale force winds are forecast to follow the front before it moves out of the basin by the end of the weekend. Seas are 8 to 12 ft with the strongest winds in the wake of the front. These conditions will continue across most of the gulf through Sun afternoon. Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: The same cold front described above in the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to move off the US east coast late tonight/early on Sun. Strong to near gale-force southerly winds have develop across the central and NE Florida offshore waters ahead of the front and in association with an area of heavy showers and thunderstorms. Gust to gale force winds are likely ongoing in that region as well and it is forecast to continue as the front push eastward through Sun evening. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on these warnings. Gulf of Honduras Dense Smoke: Dense smoke in the Gulf of Honduras is restricting visibilities to 3 nm or less. Observations from Roatan, La Ceiba, and Tela have all been reporting low visibilities during the day. Mariners are urged to exercise caution if traversing this area. The smoke has been transported over the waters by fresh to strong SE winds. These conditions are expected to continue through the weekend. Please see the Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.html for more information. Of note: Fires burned off and on throughout southern Mexico and central America in April and early May, during the regions annual dry season. Fires create a lot of smoke. The smoke mixed with the haze creates a smoky atmosphere. During this time of the year, we can see dense smoke potentially affecting mariners, especially in the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras and the Gulf of Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 12N16W to 10N20W. The ITCZ begins near 04N18W to 04N32W to 03N43W. Widely scattered showers are from 02S to 06N between 16W and 32W. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please see the Special Features section above for more information about the gale and conditions associated with a squall line ahead of it. For the forecast, hazy conditions generated by agricultural fires in Mexico will linger across the central Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche ahead of the Special Features front. High pres will become centered over the eastern Gulf Mon through Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Dense Smoke in the Gulf of Honduras. Low pressure over NW Colombia is enhancing the trade wind flow in the south-central Caribbean where fresh to locally winds prevail along with seas to 6 ft. A relatively weak pressure gradient support gentle to moderate trades elsewhere in the SW, central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds are over the NW basin ahead of the approaching cold front mentioned in the Special Features. For the forecast, fresh to strong SE to S winds offshore eastern Honduras will continue through early Sun and transport dense smoke from agricultural fires across the NW Caribbean waters. A cold front is expected to enter the NW Caribbean Sun morning, and reach from west central Cuba to the eastern Gulf of Honduras on Mon, where it will stall and dissipate by Tue. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected offshore of Colombia tonight, returning Mon night through Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Western Atlantic. Please see the Special Features section for more information. Aside from the area of potential gust to gale force winds associated with the convection ahead of the front mentioned in the Special Features, surface ridging dominates the remainder subtropical Atlantic waters E of 71W. This is supporting mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds between the central Bahamas and 55W. In the central Atlantic, a weakening cold front extends from 31N36W to 22N52W with some showers ahead of it and long period swell supporting seas of 8 to 14 ft N of 26N between 30W and 54W. Otherwise, moderate to fresh N to NE winds are between the coast of NW Africa and both the Cape Verde Islands and the Canary Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, high pres along 26N/27N will linger through tonight ahead of a strong cold front. The front is forecast to move off the US East Coast late tonight through Mon, with strong to gale-force southerly winds developing early Sun ahead of the front to the N of 28N and W of 70W, as well as in the coastal waters S of 28N. The front will then gradually weaken and slow early next week. Another, weaker front may move across the northern waters mid-week. $$ Ramos