000 AXNT20 KNHC 291737 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Apr 29 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front has entered the northwestern Gulf this morning, extending from 29N92W to 25N98W. The front will continue to move eastward through early next week. Strong to gale-force NW winds are expected immediately behind the front across the Mexican offshore waters today, reaching the Veracruz area this afternoon. Seas are forecast to build up to 12 ft with the strongest winds in the wake of the front. These conditions will continue through Sun afternoon. Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: The same cold front described above is forecast to move off the US east coast on Mon. Strong southerly winds will develop early Sun ahead of the front to the N of 25N and W of 75W, increasing to gale-force N of 29N during the day on Sun. Winds will decrease below gale force late Sun. Gulf of Mexico Ashfall Advisory: The Popocatepetl volcano in Mexico is currently in a state of unrest and is producing volcanic ash extending into portions of the SW Gulf S of 21N and W of 95W. Mariners should exercise caution if transversing this area. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on these warnings. Gulf of Honduras Dense Smoke: Dense smoke in the Gulf of Honduras is restricting visibilities to 3 nm or less. Observations from Roatan, La Ceiba, and Tela have all been reporting low visibilities over the past day. Mariners are urged to exercise caution if traversing this area. The smoke has been transported over the waters by fresh to strong SE winds. These conditions are expected to continue through the weekend. Please see the Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.html for more information. Of note: Fires burned off and on throughout southern Mexico and central America in April and early May, during the regions annual dry season. Fires create a lot of smoke. The smoke mixed with the haze to create a smoky atmosphere. During this time of the year, we can see dense smoke potentially affecting mariners, especially in the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras and the Gulf of Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 16N17W to 13N23W. Latest scatterometer data depicts the ITCZ beginning near 04N18W to 03N44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning and an Ashfall Advisory are in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please see the Special Features section above for more information. Ahead of the cold front, a squall line is analyzed from 28N89W to 23N96W. Fresh to strong SE winds are noted in scatterometer data ahead of the front and squall line over the SE Gulf waters. Seas of 8-10 ft prevail behind the front, while 4-8 ft seas are noted ahead of the front. For the forecast, the strong cold front will continue to move eastward through early next week. An intense area of thunderstorms with locally higher winds and seas will precede the front. Strong to gale-force NW winds are expected immediately behind the front through the next 24-30 hours. Hazy conditions generated by agricultural fires in Mexico will linger across the central Gulf and Bay of Campeche today. High pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will dominate the basin Mon through Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Dense Smoke in the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong winds are noted over the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds generally prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range over the NW Caribbean as well as off the coast of Colombia. Seas of 2-4 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong SE to S winds over the NW Caribbean will continue through early Sun and transport dense smoke from agricultural fires across the Gulf of Honduras. A cold front is expected to enter the NW Caribbean Sun morning, and reach from west central Cuba to the eastern Gulf of Honduras on Mon, where it will stall and dissipate by Tue. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected offshore of Colombia tonight, returning Mon night through Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Western Atlantic. Please see the Special Features section for more information. A cold front extends from 31N40W to 24N53W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the front. Fresh to strong winds are on either side of the front, with seas of 8-12 ft. High pressure is centered over NE Atlantic near 36N16W, with ridging extends westward across the discussion waters. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center and surface ridge. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range. For the forecast west of 55W, high pres over the central Atlantic will gradually build westward along 26N/27N through the weekend. Deepening low pres northeast of Bermuda will generate northerly swell north of 28N and east of 60W through this afternoon. A strong cold front is forecast to move off the US East Coast on Mon, with strong southerly winds developing early Sun ahead of the front to the N of 25N and W of 75W, increasing to gale-force N of 29N during the day on Sun. The front will then gradually weaken and slow early next week. $$ ERA