000 AXNT20 KNHC 290909 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Apr 29 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf early this morning, then move eastward through early next week. Strong to gale-force NW winds are expected immediately behind the front across the Mexican offshore waters today, reaching the Veracruz area this afternoon. Fresh to strong southerly winds and strong thunderstorms are forecast over the eastern Gulf ahead of the front. Seas are forecast to build up to 12 or 13 ft with the strongest winds in the wake of the front. Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: The same cold front is forecast to move off the US east coast on Mon. Strong southerly winds will develop early Sun ahead of the front to the N of 25N and W of 75W, increasing to gale-force N of 29N during the day on Sun. Winds will decrease below gale force late Sun. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on these warnings. Gulf of Honduras Dense Smoke: Dense smoke in the Gulf of Honduras is restricting visibilities to 3 nm or less. Observations from Roatan, La Cieba, and Tela have all been reporting low visibilities over the past day. Mariners are urged to exercise caution if traversing the Gulf of Honduras. The smoke has been transported over the waters by fresh to strong SE winds. Dense smoke and reduced visibilities are expected to continue through the weekend. Please see the Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.html for more information. Of note: Fires burned off and on throughout southern Mexico and central America in April and early May, during the regions annual dry season. Fires create a lot of smoke. The smoke mixed with the haze to create a smoky atmosphere. During this time of the year, we can see dense smoke potentially affecting mariners, especially in the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras and the Gulf of Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N13W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from the equator to 05N between 09W and 21W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from the equator to 05N between 30W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please see the Special Features section for more information. Surface troughing prevails across the Gulf waters, extending from the NE Gulf to low pres near 22N94W. A cold front is approaching the Texas coast. Active convection is noted in the vicinity of the trough over the NE Gulf, with a squall line ahead of the front over the NE Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the Yucatan Channel as well as north of the Yucatan peninsula. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in the area of fresh winds, and 3-5 ft over much of the remainder of the Gulf waters. For the forecast, a strong cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf early this morning, then move eastward through early next week. Strong to gale-force NW winds are expected immediately behind the front across the Mexican offshore waters today, reaching the Veracruz area this afternoon. Fresh to strong southerly winds and strong thunderstorms are forecast over the eastern Gulf ahead of the front. Hazy conditions generated by agricultural fires in Mexico will linger across the central Gulf and Bay of Campeche this morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Dense Smoke in the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh t strong winds are found over the NW Caribbean, with fresh to locally strong winds off the coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds generally prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range over the NW Caribbean as well as off the coast of Colombia. Seas of 2-4 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong SE to S winds over the NW Caribbean will continue through early Sun and transport dense smoke from agricultural fires across the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to locally strong winds are also expected offshore of Colombia most of this week. High pressure will build across the western Atlantic tonight through Tue, leading to fresh to locally strong trade winds across the southeast and south central Caribbean. A cold front is expected to enter the NW Caribbean Sun morning, and reach from west central Cuba to the eastern Gulf of Honduras on Mon, where it will stall and dissipate by Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Atlantic Ocean. Please see the Special Features section for more information. A cold front extends from 31N43W to 27N53W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the front. Fresh to strong winds are on either side of the front, with seas of 8-10 ft. High pressure is centered near 22N45W, with ridging extends westward across the discussion waters. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center and surface ridge. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the central Atlantic will gradually build westward along 27N through the weekend. Deepening low pressure northeast of Bermuda will generate large northerly swell north of 28N and east of 60W through today. A strong cold front is forecast to move off the US east coast on Mon, with strong southerly winds developing early Sun ahead of the front to the N of 25N and W of 75W, increasing to gale-force N of 29N during the day on Sun. $$ AL