000 AXNT20 KNHC 272320 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Apr 28 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern Gulf Sat morning, then move eastward through early next week. Strong to gale-force NW winds are expected immediately behind the front across the Mexican offshore waters Sat, reaching the Veracruz area Sat afternoon. Fresh to strong southerly winds are forecast over the eastern Gulf ahead of the front. Seas are forecast to build up to 12 or 13 ft with the strongest winds in the wake of the front. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W then continues to 04N16W. The ITCZ extends from 04N16W to 00N35W to NE Brazil near 02N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from the Equator to 04N between 24W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... Numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted over the NE Gulf, the Florida Panhandle and northern Florida associated with a 1008 mb low pressure and the attendant cold front, that extends westward to near Brownsville, Texas. Another area of showers and thunderstorms is near the western end of the front over the NW Gulf. The Storm Prediction Center is indicating Slight Risk areas of severe storms possible across parts of the Gulf coast. The strongest storms are producing frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds and heavy downpours, which may reduce visibility below 1 nm. Mariners are asked to use caution. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are ahead of the front mainly over the central Gulf with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere with seas in the 1 to 3 ft range. The Atlantic high pressure extends weakly across Florida and into the eastern Gulf. Satellite imagery shows smoke and haze over the southern Gulf of Mexico associated with agricultural fires in SE Mexico and Central America. This may at times restrict visibility over these waters. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will shift slowly SE and reach from the western Florida Panhandle to the central Bay of Campeche by Fri afternoon, where it will stall and weaken. A strong cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern Gulf Sat morning, then move eastward through early next week. Strong to gale-force NW winds are expected immediately behind the front across the Mexican offshore waters Sat, reaching the Veracruz area Sat afternoon. Fresh to strong southerly winds are forecast over the eastern Gulf ahead of the front. Hazy conditions generated by agricultural fire in Mexico will linger across the west-central and central Gulf, and Bay of Campeche through Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... The most recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of gentle to moderate winds across most of the basin with the exception of moderate to fresh winds over the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are generally in the 3 to 5 ft range, except 5 to 7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras. No deep convection is noted in the Caribbean Sea. Transverse high clouds are seen from near the Cayman Islands eastward across eastern Cuba and parts of Hispaniola due to strong west winds aloft. An area of multilayer clouds, with embedded showers, is affecting mainly the Leeward Islands and regional Atlantic waters. Visible satellite imagery indicates smoke and haze over the Gulf of Honduras due to agricultural fires in Central America. This may reduce the visibility over the waters described and mariners are asked to use caution. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds over the NW Caribbean will continue through this weekend as Atlantic high pressure extends across N Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are also expected offshore of Colombia most of this week. Moderate to occasional fresh trades are anticipated for the rest of the basin S of 16N. A cold front is expected to enter the NW Caribbean Sun and reach from west central Cuba to the eastern Gulf of Honduras by Mon evening, where it will stall and then dissipate on Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Low pressure of 1013 mb located near 24N65W is interrupting Atlantic high pressure this afternoon. A swirl of low clouds is associated with the low center. A large area of multilayer clouds, with possible showers, is noted on satellite imagery affecting roughly the waters N of 22N between 50W and 60W. This cloudiness is ahead of a short-wave trough extending along 60W/61W. Farther east, a weak cold front enters the forecast region near 31N22W and continues SW to near 23N31W where it becomes stationary to near 18N45W. A few showers are along the frontal boundary but mainly N of 26N. Mainly moderate SW winds are ahead of the front while light to gentle NW winds follow the front. Gentle to moderate trades are noted across the tropical Atlantic with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Northwesterly swell is producing seas of 6 to 9 ft across the waters N of 27N between 35W and 53W. Seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate most the western Atlantic waters E of the Bahamas. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are across the NE Caribbean passages. For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned low will drift E and gradually weaken, and move E of 55W Sat. High pressure will then build modestly westward along 27N through the weekend. Fresh southerly winds will develop east of northern Florida tonight through Sat. Deepening low pressure northeast of Bermuda will increase winds and generate large northerly swell north of 28N and east of 60W this evening through Sat. Looking ahead, a strong cold front is forecast to move off the US east coast on Mon, with fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the front beginning on Sun to the N of 25N. $$ GR