000 AXNT20 KNHC 270744 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Apr 27 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 11N16W to 03S40W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted S of 05N and E of 13W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from the equator to 10N between 20W and 25W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough across the Yucatan Peninsula is supporting a localized area of moderate to fresh SE winds in the Yucatan Channel and north of the Peninsula, where seas are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, gentle winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and north of the Yucatan Peninsula the next few evenings. A strong cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern and west-central Gulf Sat afternoon, then move eastward through early next week. This will result in fresh to strong winds, reaching locally near- gale, winds across the western Gulf this weekend. Fresh to strong southerly winds are forecast over the eastern Gulf early next week. Hazy conditions generated by agricultural fire in Mexico will linger across the west-central and central Gulf, and Bay of Campeche today. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient across the basin is producing mainly gentle easterly winds, except for fresh to strong E-SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras and Yucatan Channel, and moderate to fresh NE winds along the coast of Colombia. Seas are generally 1 to 3 ft across the basin, except 3 to 5 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and off the coast of Colombia. Northerly swell of 2-4 ft is propagating through the Mona and Anegada Passages. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds over the NW Caribbean will continue through this weekend. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are also expected offshore of Colombia most of this week. Moderate to occasional fresh trades are anticipated for the rest of the basin. Gentle to moderate seas will prevail across the entire basin through the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N24W to 19N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the front. Moderate winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are noted N of 28N W of the front to 60W. High pressure, and light to gentle winds, generally prevails elsewhere over the tropical and subtropical waters N of 20N. Seas over this area are in the 4-6 ft range. S of 20N, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will prevail over the area through the upcoming weekend. Fresh southerly winds and slightly higher seas will develop east of northern Florida today through Sat. A deepening low pressure northeast of Bermuda will increase winds and generate a large northerly swell north of 28N and east of 60W this evening through Sat. Looking ahead, strong cold front is is forecast to move off the US east coast on Mon, with fresh to strong southerly winds and building seas north of 25N. $$ AL