000 AXNT20 KNHC 232312 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Apr 24 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W to 01N24W. The ITCZ extends from 01N24W to 10N61W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm on either side of the ITCZ west of 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is approaching the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and a large complex of showers and thunderstorms over southern Texas continues to affect the NW Gulf waters. These storms are producing frequent lightning, gusty winds and heavy downpours, reducing the visibility below 1 nm. Mariners are asked to navigate with caution. On the eastern Gulf, a dissipating stationary front is draped across central Florida, exiting near Cape Coral and extending to 25N85W. No significant convection is associated with this feature. Latest scatterometer data and surface observations indicate that moderate to fresh E-SE winds prevails in the western half of the Gulf. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Areas of haze from agricultural fires are present over the southwestern Gulf. For the forecast, the stationary front over the eastern Gulf will dissipate by Mon. Fresh to strong E to SE to E winds are expected through Mon night over most of the western and central Gulf as the gradient tightens when a trough moves offshore Texas and NE Mexico. Wind gusts to near gale-force may occur in and near scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms that are expected over these same areas of the Gulf. Fresh to strong east winds will develop along and just offshore the northern Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure pattern across the basin results in light to gentle variable winds, except for moderate easterly breezes in the Gulf of Honduras. Slight seas are prevalent across the Caribbean waters, except for moderate seas in the Gulf of Honduras. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are affecting the Windward Islands and the extreme SE Caribbean, while no significant deep convection is occurring in the rest of the basin. Areas of haze from agricultural fires are present over the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, fresh east to southeast winds will develop in and near the Yucatan Channel starting Tue night. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will be just offshore the northeast coast of Honduras beginning Wed. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient over the Caribbean waters will result in relatively quiet marine conditions through the period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N75W to 27N80W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are noted behind the boundary, along with seas of 3-6 ft. To the SE, a broad surface trough is located north of the eastern Greater Antilles and east of the Bahamas. No significant convection is associated with this feature. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 4-7 ft are present north of 25N and between 60W and 72W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail west of 55W. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N33W to 24N53W, then a surface trough continues to 24N69W to 28N75W. Latest satellite- derived wind data show fresh to strong SW-W winds north of 24N and between 30W and 55W. The wave heights in these waters are 7-12 ft, with the highest seas near 30N43W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic, sustaining moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front offshore NE Florida will slowly move southeastward through late Mon and dissipate late Tue. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are expected to develop offshore northern and central Florida beginning Wed as low pressure develops off the southeastern U.S. coast. $$ ERA