000 AXNT20 KNHC 221754 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Apr 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 08N12W to 03N19W. The ITCZ extends from 03N19W to the coast of Brazil near 04N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated convection is noted south of 04N and east of 22W. Scattered moderate convection is also observed from 08N-14N between 44W-60W and also south of 10N between 48W-60W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front extends from the Florida panhandle near 30N85W west-southwestward to the Texas-Mexico border near 27N98W. A pre- frontal trough is noted from 30N84W to 25N87W and the Yucatan- forced diurnal trough is observed from 21N90W to 18N92W. Winds are moderate or weaker across the Gulf of Mexico today with seas 1-2 ft in the E Gulf and 3-4 ft in the W Gulf. No significant deep convection is noted. Areas of haze from agricultural fires are present over the SW Gulf. For the forecast, the front will weaken as it reaches from the Florida Big Bend region to South Texas by early this afternoon, then dissipate from southwestern Florida to near the Texas- Mexico border by early Sun. Fresh to strong E to SE to E winds are expected Sun through Mon night over most of the western and central Gulf. Fresh to strong east winds will develop along and just offshore the northern Yucatan Peninsula at night Sun and Tue.Agricultural fires over Mexico and Central America may result in smoke and haze over the the SW Gulf and the Bay Campeche today. Mariners may experience reduced visibility over these waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough east of the Bahamas has disrupted the normal north-south pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea, causing the trades to drop to light or gentle breeze with seas 1-3 ft across the entire Caribbean. No significant deep convection is occurring today. Areas of haze from agricultural fires are present over the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient over the Caribbean waters will result in relatively quiet marine conditions through the period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is located east of the Bahamas from 26N64W to 27N73W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 20N-30N between 58W-66W. Winds north of the trough are easterly fresh to strong breeze with seas 7-8 ft. To the northeast, a dissipating cold front is located from 31N39W to 26N54W, while a new cold front extends across our waters from 31N43W to 29N55W to 31N65W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 30 NM of the frontal boundaries. SW winds ahead of the dissipating front are fresh to strong and the W winds behind the new cold front are also fresh to strong. Seas are 7-11 ft in mixed wind waves and NW swell. Elsewhere across our Atlantic waters, winds are moderate or weaker and seas 4-6 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, weak low pressure is expected to develop this morning east of the Bahamas. It will drift southward through this evening then dissipate. A tight pressure gradient will develop between high pressure to the north and the low. The tightening pressure gradient will support fresh to strong winds between Bermuda and the Bahamas through late tonight, with seas building to 8 ft. Seas will subside late tonight. A weak cold front is expected to move off the coast of northeast Florida late this evening, then dissipate north of the Bahamas by Mon. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected to develop offshore northern and central Florida during the middle of next week in advance of low pressure that will track northeastward along the southeastern U.S. coast. Seas will subside with these winds. Moderate north swell is forecast to impact the northern waters east of 60W today. The swell will shift east of 55W late Sun into Mon. $$ Landsea