000
AXNT20 KNHC 220520
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Apr 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W 
to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 01N30W to 01N40W to 
the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. No significant convection is 
evident at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A squall line is moving eastward across the Gulf and currently 
stretches from the NE Gulf to the Yucatan Peninsula. The squall 
line is weakening, but fresh to strong gusty winds may be ahead 
of the boundary. Heavy downpours from this feature may lower 
visibility. Surface ridging continues to shift eastward ahead of 
a cold front moving into coastal Texas and the lower Mississippi 
Valley. The weakened gradient supports gentle to moderate E 
winds over the western Gulf and Florida Straits. Moderate to 
fresh SE winds are noted in the NE Gulf from a recent satellite 
scatterometer pass. Combined seas are 4 to 6 ft west of 90W and 
2 to 4 ft east of 90W. Areas of smoke from agricultural fires is 
limiting visibility over much of the western Gulf south of 25N.

For the forecast, a cold front will enter the NW Gulf late 
tonight into early Sat. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will 
develop behind the front on Sat. The dissipating front will extend
from southwestern Florida to near the Texas-Mexico border by 
early Sun. Fresh to strong E to SE to E winds are expected on Sun 
through Mon over most of the western and central Gulf. Fresh to 
strong east winds will develop along and just offshore the 
northern Yucatan Peninsula at night Sun and Tue. Agricultural 
fires over Mexico and Central America may result in smoke and haze
over the SW Gulf and the Bay Campeche through at least Sat. 
Mariners may experience reduced visibility over these waters. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Satellite-derived wind data shows trade winds of moderate speeds 
of less across most of the basin. The exception is an area of 
moderate to fresh ESE winds south of 18N and west of 85W, 
funneling along the terrain over northern Honduras. Areas of 
smoke and haze due to agricultural fires cover the waters west 
of 85W. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted in the central Caribbean 
between 70W and 80W, with 2 to 4 ft seas elsewhere. Calm seas 
are noted in the NW Caribbean. 

For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient over the Caribbean 
waters will result in relatively quiet marine conditions through 
early next week. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough east of the Bahamas is supporting moderate to 
fresh E-NE winds and 4 to 6 ft combined seas north of 26N west 
of 65W. Light to gentle breezes and 3 to 4 ft combined seas are 
elsewhere west of 65W. A forming cold front reaches from 31N45W 
to 27N54W, bringing fresh NW winds west of the boundary to 65W, 
shifting to W-SW ahead of the front north of 27N and west of 
40W. Seas range from 6 to 8 ft in the vicinity of the fresh 
winds. This had displaced the subtropical ridge a little farther 
south, now anchored by relatively weak 1017 mb high pressure 
centered near 22N34W. Light to gentle breezes are north of 15N 
with 4 to 5 ft seas, except in the area of the front. Moderate 
to fresh trades are south of 15N with 5 to 7 ft seas

For the forecast west of 55W, weak low pressure will develop 
early on Sat east of the Bahamas, then will drift southward 
through Sun. A tight pressure gradient will develop between high 
pressure to the north and the low. The tightening pressure 
gradient will increase trade winds to fresh to strong speeds 
between Bermuda and the Bahamas tonight through late Sat night, 
with seas building to about 8 ft. Seas will subside late Sat 
night. A weak cold front is expected to move off the coast of 
northeast Florida Sat night, then dissipate north of the Bahamas 
by Mon. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected to develop 
offshore northern and central Florida during the middle of next 
week in advance of low pressure that will track northeastward 
along the southeastern U.S. coast. Seas will build with the 
fresh to strong winds. Moderate north swell is forecast to 
impact the northern waters east of 60W on Sat. The swell will 
shift east of 55W late Sun into Mon.

$$
Mora