000 AXNT20 KNHC 212157 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Apr 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to 02N25W. The ITCZ continues from 02N25W to 02S40W. No significant convection is evident at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper trough is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms over the north-central Gulf currently, mainly near 25N90W. Surface ridging that had extended over the northern Gulf is shifting eastward, ahead of a cold front moving into coastal Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. The weakened gradient is supporting gentle to moderate SE winds across the Gulf. Combined seas are 4 to 6 ft west of 90W and 2 to 4 ft east of 90W. Areas of smoke from agricultural fires is limiting visibility over much of the western Gulf south of 25N. For the forecast, fresh to strong east winds will develop along and just offshore the northern Yucatan Peninsula at night Sun and Tue. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf tonight into early Sat. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will develop behind the front on Sat. The dissipating front will extend from southwestern Florida to near the Texas-Mexico border by early Sun. Fresh to strong E to SE to E winds are expected on Sun through Mon over most of the western and central Gulf. Agricultural fires over Mexico and Central America may result in smoke and haze over the the SW Gulf and the Bay Campeche through at least Sat. Mariners may experience reduced visibility over these waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... Satellite derived wind data showed moderate to fresh SE winds south of 18N and west of 85W, funneling along the terrain over northern Honduras. Elsewhere over the northwest Caribbean relatively weak pressure gradient is allowing light to gentle SE breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas. Areas of smoke and haze due to agricultural fires cover the waters west of 85W. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft combined seas are noted over the remainder of the Caribbean. For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient over the Caribbean waters will result in relatively quiet marine conditions through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough northeast of the Bahamas is supporting moderate E winds and 4 to 6 ft combined seas north of 27N west of 60W, and light breezes and 3 to 4 ft combined seas south of 27N west of 60W. A cold front reaches from 31N52W to 27N60W. This had displaced the subtropical ridge a little farther south, now anchored by relatively weak 1019 mb high pressure centered near 24N42W. This pattern is supporting light breezes from 20N to 25N east of 60W, moderate to fresh W winds north of 20N and east of the front, and moderate trade winds farther south. Combined seas are 4 to 6 ft across the region. For the forecast west of 55W, low pressure will develop tonight east of the Bahamas, then will drift southward through Sun. A tight pressure gradient will develop between high pressure to the north and the low. The tightening pressure gradient will increase trade winds to fresh to strong speeds between Bermuda and the Bahamas tonight through late Sat night, with seas building to about 8 ft. Seas will subside late Sat night. A weak cold front is expected to move off the coast of northeast Florida Sat night, then dissipate north of the Bahamas by Mon. Moderate north swell is forecast to impact the northern waters east of 60W beginning on Sat. $$ Christensen