000 AXNT20 KNHC 200453 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Apr 20 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 02N25W to 02N36W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is evident from 00N to 06N between 10W and 25W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02S to 06N between 25W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends over the northern Gulf from high pressure offshore the Mid-Atlantic states to the Texas coast. Moderate to fresh SE winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas are over the western Gulf, west of 90W and offshore the NW Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft combined seas over the eastern Gulf. There may be some limitation to visibility over the southwest Gulf due to smoke and haze from agricultural fires over southern Mexico and Central America. Mariners may experience reduced visibility in these waters. For the forecast, weak high pressure off the SE United States combined with surface troughing over Mexico will continue to force moderate to fresh SE to S return flow over the Gulf of Mexico through Fri. The diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan will promote strong E winds over the SW Gulf tonight and Thu night. Winds will diminish across the Gulf Fri ahead of a cold front that is expected to enter the NW Gulf Fri night. N to NE winds behind the front should be moderate to fresh on Sat. By Sun morning, the dissipating front will extend from SW Florida to near the Texas- Mexico border. Looking ahead, as a surface ridge builds to the north of the Gulf, fresh to strong E to SE to E winds are expected on Sun and Mon over most of the Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A recent satellite scatterometer pass observed fresh to strong trades over the south-central and southeast Caribbean, with the strongest winds offshore Colombia between high pressure over the Carolinas and troughing across central Colombia. Seas range from 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere over the central and eastern Caribbean with 5 to 6 ft seas. Gentle to moderate trade winds and 3 to 5 ft combined seas are noted elsewhere over the northwest Caribbean. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean will weaken over the next couple of days. This will allow the fresh to strong NE to E trades over the S central Caribbean and fresh E trades over the Gulf of Honduras to diminish by Fri. Elsewhere, winds and seas will be quiescent through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak stationary front extends west-southwestward from a 1017 mb low pres system near 30N65W to 27N74W. An elongated surface trough extends SE from the low to NE Cuba. An upper level trough continues to support broken to overcast clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms out ahead of this system from 23N to 31N between 55W and 65W. Scattered showers are also observed over the S Bahamas and NE Cuba. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 4 to 6 ft combined seas are noted west of the trough. Farther east, the waters are dominated by a 1024 mb high pressure center near 29N48W, which is keeping quiet conditions in place. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 4 to 6 ft combined seas south of 20N, and mostly light to gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft combined seas north of 20N east of 60W. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front and surface trough are expected to weaken and dissipate Friday. Another surface trough is likely to form by Fri night and persist through Sun east of the Bahamas. The trough should strengthen trades between Bermuda and the Bahamas on Sat and Sun before weakening on Mon. A weak cold front should move off the coast of NE Florida Sat night, but dissipate north of the Bahamas by Mon. Finally, moderate N swell is anticipated to impact the N waters east of 60W beginning on Sat. $$ Mora