000 AXNT20 KNHC 192218 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Apr 20 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 10N14W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 02N32W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 00N to 05N between 24W and 32W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extending from the Carolinas to the Texas coast is supporting moderate to fresh SE winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas over the western Gulf, and gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft combined seas over the eastern Gulf. There may be some limitation to visibility over the southwest Gulf due to smoke from agricultural fires over southern Mexico. For the forecast, the weather pattern will continue to force moderate to fresh SE to S return flow over the Gulf of Mexico through Fri. The diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan will promote strong E winds over the SW Gulf tonight and Thu night. Winds will diminish across the Gulf Fri ahead of a cold front that is expected to enter the NW Gulf Fri night. N to NE winds behind the front should be moderate to fresh on Sat. By Sun morning, the dissipating front will extend from SW Florida to near the Texas-Mexico border. Looking ahead, as a surface ridge builds to the north of the Gulf, fresh to strong E to SE to E winds are expected on Sun and Mon over most of the Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are evident off Colombia between high pressure over the Carolinas and troughing across central Colombia. Gentle to moderate trade winds and 3 to 5 ft combined seas are noted elsewhere, except for light breezes and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere over the northwest Caribbean. For the forecast, the high pressure north of the Caribbean will weaken over the next couple of days. This will allow the fresh to strong NE to E trades over the S central Caribbean and fresh E trades over the Gulf of Honduras to diminish by Fri. Elsewhere, winds and seas will be quiescent through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from just west of Bermuda to 1014 mb low pressure northeast of the central Bahamas near 26N73W, to eastern Cuba. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 3 to 5 ft combined seas are noted west of the front, and moderate to fresh SE to S winds and 4 to 6 ft combined seas east of the front to 60W. An upper trough is east of the front from over Bermuda to the Windward Passage. This is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms from 25N to 27N between 62W and 65W. Farther west, the subtropical ridge extends north of 20N between 25W and 60W. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and 4 to 6 ft combined seas south of 20N, and mostly light to gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft combined seas north of 20N east of 60W. For the forecast west of 55W, the southern portion of the front should dissipate by Thu, while the northern portion should remain nearly stationary until dissipating by Fri. A surface trough is likely to form by Fri night and persist through Sun east of the Bahamas. The trough should strengthen trades between Bermuda and the Bahamas on Sat and Sun before weakening on Mon. A weak cold front should move off the coast of NE Florida Sat night, but dissipate north of the Bahamas by Mon. Finally, moderate N swell is anticipated to impact the N waters east of 60W beginning on Sat. $$ Christensen