000 AXNT20 KNHC 172139 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Apr 18 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 13N16W and then extends to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 02N30W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 01N to 04N between 25W and 35W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from Chokoloskee, Florida to 23N90W, then continues as a stationary front to near Tampico, Mexico. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass showed fresh to strong northerly winds over the easterly Gulf behind the front, but the latest buoy observations show mainly moderate to fresh winds. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are noted elsewhere. Wave heights are 5 to 7 ft over the eastern Gulf with 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. The widespread organized convection from yesterday has largely ended, as has large areas of smoke over the southwest Gulf. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from the Straits of Florida across northwestern Cuba to northern Yucatan Peninsula late tonight. It should exit the Gulf on Tue, while the stationary front will dissipate by Tue evening. Fresh to occasional strong northerly winds across the east- central Gulf behind the front will linger until later this evening. Afterward, fresh to strong southeasterly return flow should develop over the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche Tue afternoon through Thu morning. Looking ahead, a potential cold front could cause winds and seas to increase once again at the northwestern Gulf this weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A front moving through the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida has disrupted the normal pattern of the subtropical ridge supporting fresh trade winds across the Caribbean. As a result, relatively benign marine weather persist across the basin. Gentle to moderate trade winds are noted in most areas, except for light breezes over the northwest Caribbean and between Colombia and Nicaragua. Combined wave heights are 3 to 5 ft over the eastern and central Caribbean, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere, maybe less off southern Cuba. There is no significant convection over the water, with a few sea breeze related thunderstorm over some of the larger land masses. For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across much of the Caribbean this week as a weak ridge persists southeast of Bermuda. The weakening cold front over the Gulf of Mexico will approach the Yucatan Channel tonight, then gradually dissipate at the far northwestern basin on Tue. Easterly winds are expected to become fresh to locally strong north of Colombia and at the Gulf of Honduras Wed through Thu nights. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front stretches across the western Atlantic from 31N75W to near Jupiter Inlet, Florida. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are active along and within 90 nm east of a pre- frontal trough reaching from 31N73W to Grand Bahama Island. Farther east, another stalling front is analyzed along 28N between 30W and 50W. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas south of 20N, and gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 combined seas north of 20N. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will gradually sink southward and reach from 31N71W to the northwest Bahamas Tue morning, then from 31N68W to northeastern Cuba Tue night. Afterward, it should stall from near Bermuda to the southeast Bahamas and dissipate during midweek. Looking ahead, a strengthening Bermuda High will introduce moderate to fresh easterly winds and higher seas across the western Atlantic toward the weekend. $$ Christensen