000 AXNT20 KNHC 170423 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Apr 17 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0415 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 01N35W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 05N and between 15W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from near Apalachicola, Florida to Tampico, Mexico. Divergence aloft is producing strong showers and thunderstorms over the SW Gulf of Mexico and similar convection is seen in the Florida Straits. A recent scatterometer pass indicate that strong to near gale force winds are found off SW Florida, western Florida Straits and south of a line from 24N98W to 19N91W associated with the aforementioned convection and outflow boundaries. Fresh to strong winds are evident in the NE and western Gulf waters, especially from 21N and 27N and west of 91W. Similar winds are noted off northern Yucatan and in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Seas in these waters are 5-9 ft with the highest seas near 25N96W. Moderate to locally fresh N-NE winds prevail elsewhere, except for light to gentle in the Florida Straits. Slight to moderate seas are present in the areas described. Areas of smoke from agricultural fires over southern Mexico are impacting much of the Bay of Campeche outside of showers and thunderstorms. For the forecast, gusty winds and locally rough seas are likely tonight due to outflow boundaries from earlier thunderstorms ahead of the front over the southern and central Gulf. The front will reach from Tampa Bay, Florida to Tampico, Mexico early Mon, before stalling and dissipating from the Straits of Florida to the northeast Yucatan Peninsula through mid-week. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas are likely both ahead of and behind the front over much of the western, central and southern Gulf tonight into early Mon. Fresh to locally strong SE winds are likely over the western Gulf Tue night into Wed, diminishing through Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea supports fresh easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean and locally in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere. For the forecast, ridging across the western Atlantic will sustain moderate trade-winds across most of the Caribbean tonight, except for fresh winds in the Gulf of Honduras and south- central Caribbean off Colombia. Fresh to strong N winds are also possible tonight in the Yucatan Channel due to outflow boundaries from earlier thunderstorm activity over the Gulf of Mexico. Winds will diminish across the basin into mid-week as the ridge shifts east ahead of a weakening cold front approaching the Yucatan Channel. Looking ahead, winds may increase off Colombia by Wed night as the ridge builds north of the region following the front. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Divergence aloft is helping to enhance the showers and isolated thunderstorm activity off the eastern coast of Florida. Fresh southerly winds are noted north of 27N and west of 77W, along with seas of 3-5 ft. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to locally strong easterly winds off northern Hispaniola, mainly south of 23N and between 70W and 75W. Seas in the area described are 4-7 ft. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge anchored between the Azores and Bermuda. Fresh N-NE winds and seas of 5-7 ft are present off western Africa, especially between 12N and 20N and east of 26W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail in the rest of the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move offshore of northeast Florida tonight, continue moving slowly to the southeast and reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Tue, before stalling and dissipating through mid-week. High pressure will build in the wake of the front between Bermuda and northeast Florida through Fri. $$ DELGADO