000
AXNT20 KNHC 162034
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Apr 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N14W and extends to
04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 02S45W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 25W and 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from near Pensacola, Florida to
La Pesca, Tamaulipas on northeast coast of Mexico. A line of
thunderstorms is evident ahead of the front over the eastern Gulf
from 28N85W southward to near Cancun, Mexico. Another large
cluster of thunderstorms is active within 90 nm of 23N92W. Fresh
to strong NE winds and 6 to 8 ft combined seas follow the front
over the northwest Gulf. Strong winds associated with outflow
boundaries from the thunderstorm activity is likely ongoing over
portions of the north-central Gulf, although this will diminish
shortly. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas are noted
elsewhere. Areas of smoke from agricultural fires over southern
Mexico are impacting much of the Bay of Campeche outside of
showers and thunderstorms.

For the forecast, gusty winds and locally rough seas will likely 
persist this evening near numerous showers and thunderstorms 
active ahead of the front over the south- central and eastern 
Gulf.The front will reach from Tampa Bay, Florida to Tampico, 
Mexico early Mon, before stalling and dissipating from the Straits
of Florida to the northeast Yucatan Peninsula through mid week. 
Fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas are likely behind 
the front over much of the western and central Gulf tonight into 
early Mon. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong SE winds are 
likely over the western Gulf Tue night into Wed, diminishing 
through Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main influences on Caribbean weather this afternoon remain 
the subtropical ridge parked north of the area over the western 
Atlantic, along with the resident low pressure centered over
northern Colombia. A recent scatterometer satellite pass 
confirmed fresh to strong winds were active off the coast of 
Colombia earlier this afternoon. An earlier scatterometer 
satellite pass reveals that moderate to fresh easterly trade winds
prevailed elsewhere in the south- central Caribbean and the Gulf 
of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate easterly
winds are evident in the north- central and eastern Caribbean, 
along with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Light to gentle E to SE winds and 
slight to moderate seas are prevalent across the remainder of the 
basin.

For the forecast, the ridging across the western Atlantic will
weaken slightly, allowing the winds off Colombia to diminish.
However the pattern will continue to support moderate trade- 
winds across most of the Caribbean tonight, except for fresh winds
in the Gulf of Honduras and south- central Caribbean off 
Colombia. Winds will diminish across the basin into mid week as 
the ridge shifts east ahead of a weakening cold front approaching 
the Yucatan Channel. Looking ahead, winds may increase off 
Colombia by Wed night as the ridge builds north of the region 
following the front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical ridge extends across the western Atlantic north of
25N and west of 55W, anchored by 1021 mb high pressure centered 
near 29N60W. Weak surface troughs are evident farther east, north
of 20N between 30W and 60W. This pattern is supporting generally
moderate winds and combined seas across the north Atlantic south
of 30N. Divergence aloft associated with a weak upper trough off
northeast Florida is supporting a small area of showers and
thunderstorms over the central Bahamas, mainly near Andros Island. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move offshore of 
northeast Florida tonight, continue moving slowly to the southeast
and reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Tue, 
before stalling and dissipating through mid week. High pressure 
will build in the wake of the front between Bermuda and northeast 
Florida through Fri. 

$$
Christensen