000 AXNT20 KNHC 160003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Apr 16 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Gambia-Senegal border and extends westward and southwest to 11N21W. No significant convection is presently occurring along or near the trough. The ITCZ is analyzed from near 03N23W to 05N34W, and southwestward to 02N41W to 01N45W and to 01N50W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 38W-43W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 44W-49W, and north of the ITCZ within 60 nm of 04N49W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad surface trough is over the north-central and west- central Gulf, with its axis analyzed from near just southeastern Louisiana southwestward to 26N93W and to near 20N95W. It is being aided by a mid-latitude trough over Texas. Satellite imagery continues to vividly show an impressive mesoscale convective system (MCS) racing eastward across the eastern part of the north-central Gulf waters and heading towards the NE Gulf. The system consists of numerous thunderstorms north of 26N between 83W-90W. The leading edge of the MCS is denoted by a squall line that stretches from just southeast of Pensacola southwestward to near 26N89W. Strong winds, with gusts likely reaching severe criteria, frequent lightning and possible waterspouts can be expected with this system as it moves across the NE Gulf tonight. Mariners are recommended to use extreme caution if navigating near the aforementioned thunderstorms. In addition, scattered showers and thunderstorms are west of the MCS along and near the surface trough axis, primarily north of 27N to inland Louisiana. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed to the southwest of the MCS over the west-central Gulf waters as well as along the coast of Mexico from just north of Tampico to the vicinity of Brownsville, Texas. Gentle to moderate southeast to south winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf, except for slightly higher seas of 5-6 ft over the central and west-central Gulf waters. For the forecast, weak high pressure ridging from southwest Florida to the central Gulf is shifting eastward ahead of a cold front moving into coastal Texas. The front will enter the northwest Gulf tonight, move southeastward and reach from Tampa Bay, Florida to Poza Rica, Mexico early Mon, before stalling and dissipating from the Straits of Florida to the northeast Yucatan Peninsula through mid-week. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas are likely behind the front over much of the western and central Gulf Sun into early Mon. Gusty winds and rough seas may accompany clusters of thunderstorms over the north-central Gulf this evening, and again across the northern Gulf ahead of the front overnight. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient associated to a 1025 mb Bermuda high centered about 120 nm southeast of Bermuda continues to sustain easterly winds across the entire basin. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are seen at the south-central basin. Light to gentle east to southeast winds and seas of 3-4 ft are present are over the northwest part of the sea. Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds along with seas of 5-7 ft seas remain elsewhere over the basin. For the forecast, ridging across the western Atlantic will sustain a moderate trade-wind regime across the eastern and central Caribbean through Sun, except for fresh to strong winds overnight in the south- central Caribbean off Colombia and the Gulf of Honduras. Winds will diminish across the basin into mid week as the ridge shifts east ahead of a weakening cold front approaching the Yucatan Channel. Looking ahead, winds may increase again off Colombia by Wed night as the ridge builds north of the region following the front. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A dissipating stationary front curves southwestward from near 31N40W southwestward to 25N48W to 21N54W to 21N69W. Latest ASCAT data passes indicate moderate to fresh northeast to east winds northwest and north of the front to near 26N. Winds then become light to gentle north of 26N as they approach a 1025 mb high center that is located near 31N63W, or about 120 nm southeast of Bermuda. Seas are in the range of 5-7 ft within the area of moderate to fresh winds and 4-6 ft within the area of light to gentle winds. Scattered to broken low clouds with possible isolated showers are along near the between 54W-69W. A surface trough extends from the central Bahamas to east-central Cuba. Scattered moderate convection moving eastward is east of the trough to near 71W and south of 28N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are west of the trough south of 27N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms moving eastward are over Florida south of about 29N. Latest ASCAT data passes south of 15N between 34W-61W, where seas are 5-7 ft per latest available altimeter data passes over this part of the Atlantic. Farther east, gentle to moderate northeast to east trade winds along with seas of 5-7 ft are present from 20N to 26N between 50W and the Bahamas, and also from 04N to 20N between the Cabo Verde Islands and Lesser Antilles. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh north to northeast trade winds and seas of 6-8 ft are north of 18N between the African coast and 25W. Light to gentle NE to SE winds with seas of 5-7 ft seas in moderate northerly swell remain over the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, a weak trough over the Bahamas will dissipate this evening. A cold front will move offshore of northeast Florida Sun night or early Mon morning, continue slowly to the southeast, reaching from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Tue, before stalling and dissipating through mid week. High pressure will build in the wake of the front between Bermuda and northeast Florida through mid-week. $$ Aguirre