000 AXNT20 KNHC 151005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Apr 15 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 07N13W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 02N44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 06N between 20W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge spans the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights range from 2 to 4 ft. Moderate wind speeds are in the western half of the area. Gentle to moderate wind speeds are in the eastern half of the area. Scattered moderate convection prevails across the NW Gulf waters N of 27N and W of 93W. Some surface observations along the coast of Mexico, for the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, show visibilities that range from 3 miles to 5 miles with haze, from inland agricultural fires. For the forecast, the ridge will shift east today ahead of a cold front that is forecast to enter the western Gulf tonight. The front will move southeastward across much of the Gulf and reach from Fort Myers, Florida to Tampico, Mexico by Sun night. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas are likely behind the front over much of the western and central Gulf Sun into early Mon. Well in advance of the front, there is a possibility of some severe thunderstorm squalls with gusty winds over portions of the north-central and NE Gulf today. CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong NE winds are within 120 nm of the coast of Colombia, with seas ranging from 8-10 ft. The seas range from 4 to 6 ft in the rest of the central Caribbean. Fresh NE winds are elsewhere within 360 nm of the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia from 70W westward. Moderate NE winds are in the remainder of the central sections of the Caribbean, and in the SW sections. Moderate to fresh NE winds, and seas that range from 3 to 5 ft are in the eastern portion of the basin. Fresh to strong SE winds prevail across the Gulf of Honduras with seas to 7 ft. Gentle winds are elsewhere from Jamaica northwestward. The sea heights range from 2 to 4 ft in the remainder of the Caribbean. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge located just north of the Caribbean will sustain a moderate trade-wind regime across the eastern and central Caribbean through the weekend, except for fresh to strong in the south-central Caribbean. Strong to near gale force winds will persist through the weekend within 60 nm of the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Honduras through Sun. Looking ahead, winds should diminish across the basin early next week as a weakening cold front approaches the Yucatan Channel. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N41W to 21N60W then becomes a surface trough continues to 31N76W. Seas range mostly from 4 to 6 ft from the front eastward. Some areas of 7 ft seas are within 700 nm N of the Cabo Verde Islands. A 1023 mb high pressure center is near 30N62W. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic wind speeds are around the high pressure center, from the frontal boundary northwestward. Gentle winds are from 27N northward between the front and 60W. Seas range from 6 to 8 ft from 50W eastward from the front northward. The seas range from 4 to 6 ft elsewhere from the frontal boundary northward. A surface ridge extends from a 1027 mb high pressure centered near 39N16W to 31N28W to 26N25W to 18N45W. The seas range from 7 to 10 ft from 28N northward from 15W eastward. Strong NE winds are from Africa to the Canary Islands from 20W eastward. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are elsewhere from 23N northward from 24W eastward. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from 13N southward between 34W and 57W. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail N of the front as it dissipates through today. The next cold front is expected to move offshore of northern Florida Sun night or early Mon morning enhancing winds and seas across the western Atlantic through Tue. $$ ERA