000 AXNT20 KNHC 150559 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Apr 15 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W, to 03N35W and to 02N44W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 120 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 23W and 29W, and within 150 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 37W and 42W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 02N to 07N between 43W and 49W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 11N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A broad and weak surface ridge spans the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet. Moderate wind speeds are in the western half of the area. Gentle to moderate wind speeds are in the eastern half of the area. Multilayered clouds are in the western half of the Gulf of Mexico, moving toward the ENE. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the coastal waters from Louisiana to Mexico. Some surface observations along the coast of Mexico, for the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, show visibilities that range from 3 miles to 5 miles with haze, from inland agricultural fires. Weak ridging extends from southwest Florida to southeast Louisiana. The ridge will shift east Sat ahead of a cold front that is forecast to enter the western Gulf Sat night. The front will move southeastward across much of the Gulf and reach from Fort Myers, Florida to Tampico, Mexico Sun night. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas are likely behind the front over much of the western and central Gulf Sun into early Mon. Well in advance of the front, there is a possibility of some severe thunderstorm squalls with gusty winds over portions of the north central and NE Gulf on Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong NE winds are within 180 nm of the coast of Colombia. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 10 feet in the southern half of the central one-third of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the rest of the central sections. Fresh NE winds are elsewhere within 360 nm of the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia from 70W westward. Moderate NE winds are in the remainder of the central sections of the Caribbean Sea, and in the SW sections. Moderate to fresh NE winds, and sea heights that range from 3 feet to 5 feet, are in the eastern one-third of the area. Fresh to strong SE winds were from 20N southward from 84W westward in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Gentle winds are elsewhere from Jamaica northwestward. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The Atlantic ridge located just north of the Caribbean will sustain a moderate trade-wind regime across the eastern and central Caribbean through the weekend, except for fresh to strong in the south-central Caribbean. Strong to near gale force winds will persist through the weekend within 60 nm of the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Sat night. Looking ahead, winds should diminish across the basin early next week as a weakening cold front approaches the Yucatan Channel. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 31N40W to 25N50W to 21N57W. The front is stationary from 21N57W to 20N65W and 22N70W. The front is dissipating stationary from 22N70W beyond 31N75W. A surface trough is about 300 nm to the SE of the cold front. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 60 nm on either side of the frontal boundary. Other isolated moderate is about 900 nm to the southeast of the cold front. The sea heights range mostly from 4 feet to 6 feet from the cold front eastward and southeastward. Some areas of 7 foot sea heights are within 700 nm to the north of the Cabo Verde Islands, and within 850 nm to the WSW of the Cabo Verde Islands. A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 30N63W. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic wind speeds are around the high pressure center, from the frontal boundary northwestward. Gentle winds are from 27N northward between the cold front and 62W. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet from 53W eastward from the front northward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere from the frontal boundary northward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet from the Bahamas northward. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet from the Bahamas southward. A surface ridge extends from a 1027 mb high pressure center that is near 38N17W, through 31N28W 26N25W, to 18N45W. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from 25N northward from 20W eastward. Strong NE winds are from Africa to the Canary Islands from 20W eastward. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are elsewhere from 23N northward from 24W eastward. the Azores. Mostly fresh NE winds are from 13N southward between 34W and 57W. Moderate NE winds are to the southeast of the line that passes through 31N24W 28N31W 22N42W 19N54W. Gentle winds are between the 31N24W-to-19N54W line and the 31N40W-to-21N57W cold front. A stationary front extends from 22N55W to 21N67W then becomes weak to 31N75W. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail N of the front as it dissipates through the Sat. The next cold front is expected to move offshore of northern Florida Sun night or early Mon morning enhancing winds and seas across the western Atlantic through Tue. $$ mt/era