000 AXNT20 KNHC 150004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Apr 15 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 08N13W southwestward to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 01N26W and to 01S46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 15W-24W, within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 37W-39W and north of the ITCZ within 60 nm of 03N41W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 07N between 10W-15W. GULF OF MEXICO... The 18 UTC surface analysis has a weak high pressure ridge extending from southwest Florida northwest to southeastern Louisiana. The associated gradient is providing for generally gentle to moderate return flow over the basin, with seas of 3-5 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 3-5 ft over the eastern Bay of Campeche, the SW Gulf and over the waters from 22N to 26N west of 87W. Satellite imagery shows newly formed scattered showers and thunderstorms moving east-northeastward from 25N to 28N and east of 86W to inland central Florida. Some surface observations along the coast of the Bay of Campeche indicate reduced visibility of 3-5 SM due to hazy conditions arising from inland agricultural fires. An ill-defined fair weather mesoscale low lifting north is apparent on visible satellite just northeast of Tampico, Mexico. For the forecast, the ridge will shift eastward Sat ahead of a cold front that is forecast to enter the western Gulf Sat night. The front will move southeastward across much of the Gulf and reach from Sarasota, FL to Tampico, Mexico by early Mon. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds and building seas are likely behind the front over much of the western and central Gulf Sun into early Mon. Well in advance of the front, there is a possibility of some severe thunderstorm squalls with gusty winds over portions of the north-central and NE Gulf on Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Latest ASCAT data showed strong to near gale-force northeast to east winds offshore Colombia north to near 13N. Seas with these winds are in the 8-11 ft range. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds were noted elsewhere from 11N to 15N between 73W-80W along with seas of 7-10 ft. Elsewhere over the remainder of the basin, moderate to locally fresh trades prevail with 4-7 ft seas. In the NW Caribbean, gentle to moderate southeast winds continue with seas of 3-4 ft seas. Fresh southeast winds are in the Gulf of Honduras as depicted in the latest ASCAT data pass over that part of the area. Seas there are 4-6 ft. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge located just north of the Caribbean, will sustain a moderate trade-wind regime across the eastern and central Caribbean through the weekend, except for fresh to strong in the south-central Caribbean. Strong to near gale-force winds will continue through the weekend within 60 nm of the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Sat night. Looking ahead, winds should diminish across the basin early next week as a weakening cold front approaches the Yucatan Channel. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A central Atlantic cold front extends from near 31N41W to 25N49W, where it transitions to a stationary front that continues to 22N60W and west-northwestward to 23N70W and to 28N75W and to north of the area at 31N75W. Numerous showers and thunderstorms moving eastward are noted from 27N to 30N between 70W-75W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms moving east-northeastward are over most of the Bahamas extending westward to just offshore some sections of the South Florida and from the Bahamas southwestward to the Straits of Florida. Similar activity moving east-northeastward is just offshore central Florida and along and just inland central and eastern Cuba. A central Atlantic 1023 mb high pressure center is analyzed near 30N60W. A 1026 mb high center is located near the Azores. These features are allowing for generally gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across most of the basin. Seas are 4-7 ft across these waters. In the far eastern Atlantic, strong to near gale-force northeast winds were detected by the latest ASCAT data passes near the Canary Islands and the coast of Africa. Seas with these winds are 8-9 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, moderate to fresh winds will remain north of the aforementioned front as it weakens through Sat. The next cold front is expected to move offshore of northern Florida Sun night, or early on Mon morning enhancing winds and seas across the western Atlantic through Tue. $$ Aguirre