620 
AXNT20 KNHC 141015
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Apr 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the 
Atlantic ridge and comparatively lower pressure in NW Colombia is 
supporting gale force NE winds within 60 nm of the coast of 
Colombia through this morning. Expect strong to near gale-force 
winds to pulse across the same area each night through the 
weekend. Sea will range from 8 to 10 ft with the strongest winds.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 
05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 01S38W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted S of 04N between 28W-38W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are noted across most of the
basin except over the Bay of Campeche, where moderate to fresh
E winds prevail. Seas range from 3 to 5 ft basin-wide.

For the forecast, a cold front is forecast to enter the western Gulf
Sat night and move across much of the Gulf, extending from
Sarasota, FL to Tampico, Mexico by early Mon. Fresh to strong N
to NE winds and building seas are likely behind the front over
much of the western and central Gulf Sun into early Mon. Well in
advance of the front, there is a possibility of some severe
thunderstorm squalls with gusty winds over portions of the
north-central and NE Gulf on Sat. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about
the Gale Warning that was issued for the south central Caribbean.

Shallow patches of moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are
supporting scattered showers E of 66W. Moderate to fresh trades
prevail across most of the basin mainly E of 81W and in the Gulf
of Honduras. Light to gentle SE winds prevail elsewhere W of 81W.
Seas are 8 to 10 ft in the S-central Caribbean, 4 to 7 ft E of
81W, and 2-4 ft W of 81W.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge N of the Caribbean will 
sustain a moderate trade-wind regime across the eastern and 
central Caribbean through the weekend, except for fresh to strong 
in the south-central Caribbean. Strong to minimal gale force winds
will prevail through this morning within 60 nm of the coast of 
Colombia, then strong to near-gale winds will pulse each night 
through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf 
of Honduras tonight and Sat night. Looking ahead, winds should 
diminish across the basin early next week as a weakening cold 
front approaches the Yucatan Channel.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N47W to 24N57W to 31N79W. 
The remaining SW N Atlantic waters are dominated by a surface 
ridge anchored by a high pressure of 1022 mb located near 31N67W. 
Fresh NE to E winds prevail N of the front with seas from 4-7 ft.
A small area of seas to 8 ft prevails N of 30N between 50W-56W. 
The remainder central and E subtropical Atlantic is under the 
influence of the Azores High which along lower pressures over NW 
Africa support fresh to strong NE winds and seas to 9 ft between 
the Canary Islands and the W African coast. 

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh winds will prevail N of the 
front as it drifts E while weakening through the weekend. The next
cold front is expected to move offshore of northern Florida Sun 
night enhancing winds/seas across the W Atlantic through Tue.

$$
ERA