000
AXNT20 KNHC 131011
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Apr 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between low
pressure of 1006 mb centered in the N-central Gulf near 29N87W, 
with associated fronts and high pressure to its N and NE has 
resulted in strong to gale-force NE and E winds over the NE Gulf 
waters. These winds are generating seas in the range of 8-15 ft. 
The gale winds have weaken to 30 kt at 09Z, and will continue
following the low as it tracks northward. Once the low moves 
inland later today, marine conditions will improve by this 
afternoon and evening. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 
for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic off the coast of
W Africa near 07N12W and continues to 05N17W to 00N30W where it 
transitions to the ITCZ that continues to 04N30W. Scattered 
moderate convection is S of 05N between 24W-42W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on a Gale Warning that 
is currently in effect for the NE Gulf. 

The low pressure of 1006 mb centered near 29N87W, and that is 
described above under Special Features has a warm front extending 
from it to the Florida Big Bend, while a cold front is analyzed
from the low to 24N93W. Scattered showers are noted in the
vicinity of the low/fronts. Elsewhere outside the area impacted 
by the Special Features system, generally gentle to moderate winds
are over the western part of the Gulf, while moderate to fresh W 
to NW winds are over portions of the SE Gulf. Seas outside the 
impacted Special Feature system range from 4-7 ft. 

For the forecast, the 1006 mb low pres will continue moving N
across the N-central gulf waters then moving inland. Strong to 
near gale force winds will prevail in the NE semicircle of the 
low today. Once the low moves inland later today, marine conditions
will improve by this evening. A cold front is forecast to enter 
the western Gulf Sat night, which will cause winds and seas to 
increase Sun into Mon. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Ridging aloft and weak surface high pressure across the area is 
maintaining general dry and stable conditions throughout the 
basin as continues to suppress deep convection from developing. 
Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds are evident in the south- 
central and southeastern Caribbean, along with seas of 3-6 ft, 
except for fresh to strong winds off the coast of Colombia and
Gulf of Venezuela.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will sustain a moderate 
trade-wind regime across the eastern and central Caribbean through
the weekend, except for fresh to strong in the south-central 
Caribbean, north of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in 
the Gulf of Honduras Fri night and Sat night. Moderate northerly 
swell related to a frontal boundary currently across the western 
Atlantic will continue spreading southward across the Mona Passage
and the southeastern basin through today before dissipating by 
the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N49W to 25N75w then becomes 
warm from that point to the northern Bahamas. Scattered showers 
prevail E of the front mainly N of 26N. The Azores High dominates
the remainder central and eastern subtropical waters. High 
pressure is also building in the wake of the front. 

For the forecast W of 55W, the fresh to strong E winds north of 
the stationary front will prevail through this morning. Rough 
seas north of 25N and west of 73W will gradually subside through 
this morning. The front will drift SE through Fri while weakening.
In response, winds and seas should subside further Thu and Fri. 
The next cold front should move offshore northern Florida Sun 
night.

$$
ERA