000 AXNT20 KNHC 130603 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Apr 13 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning: A 1007 mb low pressure center is near 27N88W. A warm front extends from the low pressure center, beyond SE Florida toward Andros Island in the Bahamas. A cold front extends from the low pressure center to 25N87W and 22N94W. The low pressure center is forecast to move toward SW Alabama during the next 24 hours. Expect gale-force winds, and sea heights that range from 12 feet to 14 feet, from 28N to 29N between 85W and 88W, for the next 9 hours or so. The marine conditions are expected to improve on Thursday in the afternoon and evening, once the low pressure center moves inland. The sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 9 feet, from 24N northward in most areas. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is mostly inland, from 30N northward between the Florida Panhandle and SE Louisiana. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 24N northward from 94W eastward. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 07N12W, to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W, to 05N24W, and 04N30W. Another ITCZ is along 04S18W 04S25W 02S32W 02S35W, crossing the Equator along 37W, to 01N38W, and to 01N42W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 11N southward from 45W eastward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 15N southward between 40W and 60W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the Gale Force Wind Warning, that was issued for the north central and the northeastern part of the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet, elsewhere, from 24N southward. Mostly moderate and some fresh winds are within 360 nm to 490 nm of the center in the W semicircle. Gentle winds are elsewhere from 90W westward. Fresh to strong winds are within 260 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Moderate winds are from 260 nm to 360 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. A gale 1007 mb low pres is near 27N88W, with a warm front extending ESE to the southern tip of the Florida Peninsula and a cold front extending to the SW to near 22N93W. Strong to gale force winds prevail in the NE semicircle of the low. These winds will continue in the NE and north-central Gulf through tonight as the low moves N. Once the low moves inland on Thu, marine conditions will improve by Thu evening. A cold front is forecast to enter the western Gulf Sat night, which will cause winds and seas to increase Sun into Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model, for 250 mb and for 500 mb, shows broad anticyclonic wind flow from 80W eastward. Areas of low level clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are in the trade wind flow, throughout the entire Caribbean Sea. Strong NE winds are within 160 nm of the coast of Colombia between 72W and 77W. Fresh NE winds are elsewhere within 270 nm of the coast of Colombia also between 72W and 77W. Moderate NE winds are in the remainder of the area that is from Jamaica southward between 70W and 80W. Moderate NE winds are in the eastern one-third of the Caribbean Sea. Gentle winds have been in the western one-third of the area. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet from 80W eastward. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet from 80W westward. The Atlantic ridge, located just N of the NE Caribbean, will sustain a moderate trade-wind regime across the eastern and central Caribbean through the weekend, except for fresh to strong in the south-central Caribbean, north of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Fri night and Sat night. Moderate northerly swell related to a frontal boundary currently across the western Atlantic will continue spreading southward across the Mona Passage and the southeastern basin through Thu before dissipating by the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N50W to 24N60W, 23N64W. The front is stationary from 23N64W, to Andros Island in the Bahamas. The front is warm from Andros Island beyond SE Florida, and into the north central Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 60 nm on either side of the cold front from 26N55W northeastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from the frontal boundary northward. Isolated moderate is in the remainder of the area that is from 20N northward from 40W westward. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from the SE Bahamas northward between 65W and 73W, and they range from 8 feet to 10 feet from the central Bahamas northward and northwestward. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet elsewhere from the frontal boundary northward. A surface ridge extends from a 1029 mb 38N24W high pressure center, to 31N36W, 27N44W, to 21N61W. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 10 feet to the north of the line that runs from the coast of Africa along 20N, to 13N35W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean. Strong SE winds are from the frontal boundary northward from 74W westward. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 31N69W. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic wind flow is elsewhere from the frontal boundary northward and northwestward. Strong NE winds are within 180 nm on either side of the line 31N14W 27N21W 25N28W 24N34W. Moderate to fresh winds cover much of the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. The exceptions are gentle winds that are within 420 nm to the south of the frontal boundary between 49W and 58W, and gentle to moderate NE winds from the ITCZ to 17N between 20W and 30W. A cold front extends from 31N49W to near 22N64W, then continues westward as a stationary front through the central Bahamas. Fresh to strong E winds north of the stationary front will prevail north of 26N and west of 73W through tonight. The front west of 75W will lift northward tonight as a warm front. Rough seas north of 25N and west of 72W will gradually subside through Thu morning. The cold front will continue moving slowly SE through Fri, while the stationary front should weaken gradually. In response, winds and seas should subside further Thu and Fri. The next cold front should move offshore northern Florida Sun night. $$ mt/era