705 AXNT20 KNHC 130004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Apr 13 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between low pressure of 1008 mb centered in the central Gulf near 26N89W, with associated warm front and high pressure to its N and NE has resulted in a tight pressure gradient that is bringing strong to gale force NE and E winds over most of the north-central and NE Gulf waters. These winds are generating seas in the range of 8-14 ft. The strong to gale-force winds will continue over the north-central and NE Gulf through tonight as the low tracks generally northward. The low will move inland over the U.S. north- central Gulf Coast on Thu. Once the low moves inland, marine conditions will improve Thu afternoon and evening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic off the coast of W Africa near 07N12W and continues to 02N19W to 00N30W where it transitions to the ITCZ that continues to just below the Equator near 42W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04S to 08N between 14W-30W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on a Gale Warning that is currently in effect for the north-central and NE Gulf. The low pressure of 1008 mb centered near 26N89W, and that is described above under Special Features has a warm front extending from it SE to Miami, where it transitions to a stationary front. Plenty of lift exists along and north of the warm front, where the atmosphere is very unstable. Numerous moderate convection continues over the coastal and offshore waters between the Florida Panhandle and SE Louisiana while scattered showers prevail elsewhere in the NE and SE gulf. Elsewhere outside the areas impacted by the Special Features system, generally gentle to moderate winds are over the western part of the Gulf, while moderate to fresh W to NW winds are over portions of the SE Gulf. Seas outside the impacted Special Feature system range from 4-7 ft. For the forecast, the 1008 mb low pressure over the central Gulf near 26N89W will move inland over the U.S. north-central Gulf Coast on Thu. Expect improving marine conditions in its wake. For the weekend, a cold front is forecast to enter the western Gulf which will cause winds and seas to increase over the western and central parts of the Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Ridging aloft and weak surface high pressure across the area is maintaining general dry and stable conditions throughout the basin as continues to suppress deep convection from developing. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds are evident in the south- central and southeastern Caribbean, along with seas of 3-6 ft, except for fresh to strong winds off the coast of Colombia and Gulf of Venezuela. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge located just north of the northeastern Caribbean will sustain a moderate trade-wind regime across the eastern and central Caribbean through the weekend, except for fresh to strong in the south-central Caribbean, north of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Fri night and Sat night. Moderate northerly swell related to a frontal boundary currently across the western Atlantic will enter the Mona Passage and northeastern basin today, and then spread southward into the southeastern basin through Thu before dissipating by the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from near 31N52.5W to 25N62W, where it becomes a stationary front to central Bahamas and continues northwestward to the middle Florida Keys. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are north of 28N and east of the front to 50W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are near and north of the cold and stationary fronts to near 29N, however, north of the stationary front and west of 70W scattered to numerous showers are present. This activity reaches northward to near 29N. Fresh to strong easterly winds are north of the stationary front, while mostly fresh northeast winds are northwest of the cold front. Seas over these waters are 9-11 ft. The remainder of the western Atlantic behind the cold front is under moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and seas of 8-10 ft. Moderate to fresh southwest winds and seas of 6-9 ft are east of the cold front, especially north of 22N and west of 57W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge positioned SW of the Azores. The tight pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in NW Africa support fresh to strong northeast winds north of 22N and east of 35W, with the strongest winds occurring north of 24N and east of 30W. Seas over these waters are in the 7-10 ft range. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong northeast winds north of the aforementioned stationary front will prevail north of 25N and west of 68W through this early this evening. Rough seas north of 25N produced by large northeast swell should gradually subside tonight. The cold front will continue slowly moving eastward through Fri, while the stationary front should gradually weaken and dissipate. In response, winds and seas should subside further Thu and Fri. $$ Ramos