000 AXNT20 KNHC 111008 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Apr 11 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Swell Event: A stationary front extends from 31N64W to 24N80W. The front will sink southeastward over the next few days, with strong to near-gale NE winds and high seas spreading across the waters north of 25N and west of 68W through tonight. Very rough seas produced by large NE swell behind the front north of 26N should gradually subside through this evening. The front is expected to stall again along 23N by the middle of the week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 08N13W to 02N21W. The ITCZ extends from 02N21W to 02N30W. Surface troughs are analyzed along 37W, 46W, and 49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 03N and east of 49W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from the tail end of a stationary front in the Florida Straits to 24N92W. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is dominated by a broad high pressure system over the eastern United States. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted in the NE Gulf, mainly north of 25N and east of 86W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong easterly winds with higher seas to its north will persist across the northeastern Gulf, and near the Florida Keys through today. A low pressure system is expected to develop across the northern gulf tonight, then become better organized and lift northward through Thu. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected at the north-central Gulf, and to persist across the northeastern Gulf through Thu morning. Marine conditions at both locations will improve by Thu afternoon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A fairly dry weather pattern dominates the Caribbean, only allowing for pockets of shallow moisture traveling with the trades to produce light, isolated showers. A weak high pressure regime sustains moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 3-6 ft in the south-central and SE Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge northeast of Puerto Rico near 20N will sustain a trade-wind regime across the entire basin through the end of the week. Fresh to strong easterly trades will continue at the south-central basin, north of Colombia most of the week, and begin at the Gulf of Honduras by Fri. Moderate northerly swell related to a frontal boundary currently across the western Atlantic will enter the Mona Passage and northeastern basin on Wed and spread across the eastern Caribbean through the week and weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on the Significant Swell Event in the W Atlantic. A stationary front extends from 31N64W to 24N80W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed north of Hispaniola. The combination of these systems is supporting scattered showers north of 24N and between 65W and 80W. Fresh to strong southerly winds and seas of 6-10 ft are evident ahead of the frontal boundary. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail in the rest of the western tropical Atlantic. A broad subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted in the eastern Atlantic north of 20N and east of 46W, with the strongest winds occurring north of 24N and east of 25W. These winds are generating 8-9 ft seas in the area. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and 4-7 ft seas are prevalent. For the forecast W of 55W, strong to near-gale force NE to ENE winds behind the front will prevail north of 25N and west of 68W through tonight. Very rough seas produced by large NE swell behind the front north of 26N should gradually subside through this evening. The front will continue slowly moving E while weakening through Fri. In response, both winds and seas should subside. $$ ERA