000 AXNT20 KNHC 102315 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Apr 11 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2305 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Swell Event: A cold front extends from 31N63W to the Florida Straits and will continue to sink southeastward over the next few days, with wind gusts to gale force expected across the coastal Florida waters N of 27N and W of 80W through tonight. Strong to near-gale NE winds and high seas will continue to spread across the waters N of 24N and W of 65W through Tue. Seas are peaking near 21 ft, mainly along 31N and W of 72W. Maximum sea heights will begin to abate today, with NE swell remaining above 12 ft through Tue evening. The front is expected to stall along 23N by the middle of the week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 03N19W. The ITCZ extends from 03N19W to 00N28W to 01N36W. A surface trough is along 45W, from 01S to 07N. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is found south of 05N and between 21W and 35W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from the tail end of a cold front in the Florida Straits to 24N92W. A few showers are seen near the boundary but no deep convection. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is dominated by a broad high pressure system over the eastern United States. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are noted in the NE Gulf, mainly north of 27N and east of 91W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, a surface trough reaches westward from the Florida Keys to the central Gulf. Fresh to strong easterly winds with higher seas to its north will persist across the northeastern and east-central Gulf, and near the Florida Keys through Tue. A modest low pressure system is expected to develop near the western end of this trough on Tue night, then become better organized and lift northward through Thu. This process should cause the trough to transition into a warm front, and then move inland over southern Louisiana together with the low on Thu night or Fri morning. In response, fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected at the north-central Gulf, and to persist across the northeastern Gulf Tue night through Thu morning. Marine conditions at both locations will improve by Thu afternoon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A fairly dry weather pattern dominates the Caribbean Sea, only allowing for pockets of shallow moisture traveling with the trades to produce light, isolated showers. A weak high pressure regime sustains moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 3-6 ft in the south-central and SE Caribbean Sea. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge northeast of Puerto Rico near 22N will sustain a trade-wind regime across the entire basin through the end of the week. Fresh to strong easterly trades will continue at the south-central basin, north of Colombia most of the week, and begin at the Gulf of Honduras by Fri. Moderate northerly swell related to a strong cold front currently across the western Atlantic will enter the Mona Passage and northeastern basin by Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the SW Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N63W to the NW Bahamas and the Florida Straits. A pre-frontal trough is seen north of Hispaniola. The combination of these systems is supporting showers and isolated thunderstorms near the frontal boundary, but primarily north of 25N and between 57W and 65W. Fresh to near gale-force NE winds are present behind the frontal boundary. Seas following the cold front are 10-16 ft, with the highest seas occurring northeast of the NW Bahamas. Fresh to strong southerly winds and seas of 6-10 ft are evident ahead of the frontal boundary, especially north of 26N and between 57W and 63W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail in the rest of the western tropical Atlantic. A broad subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted in the eastern Atlantic north of 20N and east of 40W, with the strongest winds occurring north of 24N and east of 25W. These winds are generating 8-10 ft seas in the area. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and 4-7 ft seas are prevalent. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends southwestward from southeast of Bermuda across the northwest Bahamas to near the Florida Keys. Strong to near-gale force NE to ENE winds behind this front will prevail north of 24N and west of 66W through tonight. These winds should decrease to between fresh and strong on Tue. Very rough seas produced by large NE swell behind the front north of 26N should gradually subside this evening through Tue evening. The front will reach from 31N58W to the Florida Straits Tue morning. Afterward, the northeastern portion will continue moving eastward as a cold front while weaken through Thu. The southwestern portion will stall across the Florida Straits and near the central Bahamas, and gradually dissipate through Wed night. In response, both winds and seas should subside further by Wed night. $$ DELGADO