000 AXNT20 KNHC 091739 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Apr 9 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1720 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... SW Atlantic Gale Warning and Significant Swell Event: A strong cold front has entered the western Atlantic and will sink across the waters of NE Florida today. The front will reach from near Bermuda to central Florida tonight, and from 31N62W to S Florida by Mon evening. A large area of strong to gale-force N to NE winds and high seas will build behind the front today, spreading across the waters N of 26N and W of 65W by Tue. As the front progresses SE, these conditions will extend westward to the east coast of Florida from this afternoon through Mon. The Ocean Prediction Center has issued a storm-force wind warning for the conditions north of 31N during this event. The sea heights are expected to reach 20-22 feet near 31N77W on tonight. The NE swell will continue to produce sea heights of 12 ft and greater through Tue evening. The front is expected to stall along 24N/25N by the middle of next week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 00N30W and to 00N45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from S of 07N between 24W and 45W. Scattered moderate to strong convection has emerged off the west coast of Africa from 03N to 07.5N, east of 16W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from Tampa Bay to the north-central Gulf. The tail end of the boundary, between 85W and 90W, is beginning to stall and lift north. A line of showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front has been diminishing in the past few hours and is now mainly east of 85W. Fresh to strong NE winds are behind the front with 3 to 5 ft seas, spreading over most of the northern Gulf of Mexico waters. Recent buoy observations recorded seas up to 6 ft near the Florida Big Bend area. Elsewhere, a surface trough extends from about 120 nm E of Brownsville, TX, to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted between 23N and 27N in the western Gulf on either side of the trough. Fresh NE winds continue in the western Gulf, shifting to more northerly on the western side of the trough. For the forecast, the front will slowly move SE over the central and eastern Gulf through tonight while weakening. Fresh to locally strong NE-E winds are expected north of the front in the N-central and NE Gulf through mid-week. Low pres is expected to develop along the remnants of the front in the central Gulf Tue, deepen through Wed night, then lift northward and inland on Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area in the subtropical Atlantic and lower pressure over northern Colombia is supporting moderate to fresh trades S of 18N and E of 77W, along with seas of 4-6 ft, reaching up to 7 ft just north of the ABC Islands. Gentle to moderate NE-E winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, Atlantic high pres centered near 31N45W extends SW to the SE Bahamas, and will support moderate to fresh trade winds across the basin E of 80W through the next several days, pulsing to strong at night S of 13N. Fresh trades and seas around 8 ft in the Tropical N Atlc will subside through tonight. Weak high pressure will then prevail N of the area Mon through mid-week ahead of a strong cold front that will move across the SW N Atlantic, with the front stalling along 23N by Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the SW Atlantic. A cold front has entered the far SW N Atlantic waters extending from 31N78W to Cape Canaveral, Florida. Strong to near gale force N-NE winds follow the front, where seas have built to 12 to 15 ft N of 29N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 180 nm ahead of the boundary, north of the northern Bahamas. An elongated trough extending from the northern Bahamas to central Cuba near 22N79W is being absorbed by the front, and the associated weather has mostly cleared over the last 12 hours. High pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic basin. A ridge extends from the 1027 mb high pressure center near 31N46W to Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh trades are noted west of 30W, shifting to SE-S over waters between 60W and 70W, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Gentle to moderate S winds are between 70W and 75W, ahead of the incoming cold front with 4 to 6 ft seas. Elsewhere, a trough extends from 31N20W to 23N20W. Strong NNE winds are W of the trough to 30W, where seas are 8-10 ft. Otherwise, winds are generally moderate to fresh from the NE, and seas are in the 5-8 ft range in the eastern Atlantic. For the forecast W of 55W, High pressure centered across the central Atlc will shift NE through mid-week as the strong cold front moves over the western Atlantic region. The front will move SE, reaching from near Bermuda to Palm Beach, Florida tonight, and from 31N63W to the Upper Florida Keys by Mon evening. The gale-force winds will spread SE behind the front, reaching to N of 28N and W of 70W early tonight, before diminishing below gale-force Mon morning. Meanwhile, storm-force winds will occur N of 31N. Very large NE swell producing seas to around 20 ft along 31N will spread into the regional waters behind the front this afternoon through Tue. The front is expected to stall and gradually weaken along 23N/24N by mid-week. $$ Mora