000 AXNT20 KNHC 090906 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Apr 9 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0720 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... SW Atlantic Gale Warning and Significant Swell Event: A strong cold front has entered the western Atlantic and will sink across the waters of NE Florida today. The front will reach from near Bermuda to central Florida tonight, and from 31N62W to S Florida by Mon evening. A large area of strong to gale-force N to NE winds and high seas will build behind the front today, spreading across the waters N of 26N and W of 65W by Tue. As the front progresses SE, these conditions will extend westward to the east coast of Florida from this afternoon through Mon. The Ocean Prediction Center has issued a storm-force wind warning for the conditions north of 31N during this event. The sea heights are expected to reach 20-22 feet near 31N77W on tonight. The NE swell will continue to produce sea heights of 12 ft and greater through Tue evening. The front is expected to stall along 24N/25N by the middle of next week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from 03N21W to 01N35W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from S of 07N between 24W and 49W. Similar convection is from 02N to 04N between 18W and 22W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from 29N83W to 24.5N92.5W. A line of showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front has been diminishing in the past few hours. Winds are generally fresh from the NE behind the front and gentle to moderate ahead of the front. Fresh to strong NW winds are noted offshore Veracruz, Mexico due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Seas are 5-7 ft S of 27N and W of 93W, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the front will move slowly SE over the central and eastern Gulf through tonight while weakening. Fresh to locally strong NE-E winds are expected behind the front in the N-central and NE Gulf through mid-week. Low pres may develop along the remnants of the front in the central Gulf Tue, deepen through Wed night, then lift northward and inland on Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area in the subtropical Atlantic and lower pressure over northern Colombia is supporting moderate to fresh trades S of 18N and E of 76W, along with seas of 4-7 ft. Gentle to moderate NE-E winds and 2-5 ft seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, Atlantic high pres combined with lower pres over northern Colombia will support pulsing fresh to strong winds in the S-central Caribbean at night through the next several days. Fresh trades and seas around 8 ft in the Tropical N Atlc will subside through tonight. Weak high pressure will then prevail N of the area Mon through mid-week ahead of a strong cold front that will move across the SW N Atlantic. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the SW Atlantic. A cold front has entered the far SW N Atlantic waters extending form 31N79.5W to 29.5N81W. Buoys are reporting strong NE winds behind the front, with 5-8 ft seas on a building trend. An elongated trough extends from 29.5N70W to across the central Bahamas. This feature is becoming less well defined and the associated weather has mostly cleared over the last 12 hours. East of the cold front, winds are gentle to moderate from the SE with 5-7 ft seas. High pressure of 1025 mb near 30N46.5W dominates the weather in the central Atlantic. Winds are gentle north of 29N along with 4-6 ft seas in mixed easterly swell, and moderate to fresh south of there and east of 70W. Seas are generally 5-8 ft. In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N19W to 24N27W. Strong NNE winds are W of the front where seas are 8-10 ft. Otherwise, winds are generally moderate to fresh from the NE and seas are in the 5-8 ft range in the eastern Atlantic. For the forecast W of 55W, the elongated trough will dissipate later this morning. A strong cold front from 31N79.5W to 29.5N81W will usher in gale-force winds behind it behind beginning around sunrise today. The front will then move SE, reaching from near Bermuda to central Florida tonight, and from 31N62W to S Florida by Mon evening. The gale-force winds will spread SE reaching to N of 28N and W of 70W before diminishing early Mon. Meanwhile storm-force winds will be N of 31N. Very large seas to around 20 ft will accompany these winds. The front is expected to stall and gradually weaken along 24N/25N by mid- week. $$ Lewitsky