000 AXNT20 KNHC 082326 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Apr 9 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2305 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... SW Atlantic Gale Warning and Significant Swell Event: A strong cold front is expected to move offshore of the SE U.S. this evening and sink across the waters of NE Florida tonight through early Sun. The front will then move SE across NW portions, reaching from near Bermuda to central Florida Sun night, and from 31N62W to S Florida by Mon evening. A large area of strong to gale-force N to NE winds, with storm- force winds just N of 31N, and significant NE swell, will build into the area behind the front, spreading across the waters N of 26N and W of 65W by Tue. These high seas, and strong to gale-force winds, will extend westward, all the way to the east coast of Florida from Sunday afternoon through Monday night. The Ocean Prediction Center has issued a storm-force wind warning for the conditions that will be happening to the north of 31N during this event. The sea heights are expected to reach 20 feet near 31N75W on Sunday night. The NE swell will continue to produce sea heights of 12 feet and greater through Tuesday evening. The front is expected to stall along 24N/25N by the middle of next week Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the border of Sierra Leone and Liberia near 07N12W and continues to 03N21W. The ITCZ extends from 03N21W to 01S33W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 08N and east of 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is draped across the northern Gulf coast, extending southwestward from the Louisiana coast to a 1016 mb low pressure near 27N93W and southward to the coast of Veracruz near 18N94W. Scattered moderate convection is present in the northern Gulf waters ahead of the frontal boundary, especially north of 27N. Fresh to strong northerly winds are found west of the stationary front, mainly south of 27N. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, stationary front lingers from the Florida Panhandle across SE Louisiana to weak low pres near 26.5N93.5W to the western Bay of Campeche near 18.5N95W. The front will move slowly eastward over the western half of the Gulf through Sun. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are expected off Veracruz through this evening. Another low pres system, expected to develop offshore of the SE coast of United States tonight, will drag the cold front southward across the NE Gulf and over Florida on Sun. Fresh to locally strong E winds are expected behind the front in the N-central and NE Gulf through mid-week. Low pres will develop along the remnants of the front in the N central Gulf Tue, deepen through Wed night, then lift northward and inland on Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A few showers are seen on satellite imagery within 60 nm of the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica in the SW Caribbean Sea. A fairly dry weather pattern dominates the remainder of the basin, suppressing the development of deep convection. The pressure gradient between the 1024 mb high pressure system near Bermuda and lower pressures in northern South America sustains moderate to fresh easterly winds in the central and eastern Caribbean Sea. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent in the rest of the Caribbean. For the forecast, broad inverted trough from near 16N72W across central Hispaniola and N-NE into the Atlantic will shift W and into the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba while dissipating through Sun night. Atlantic high pressure will build modestly across the basin behind the trough and allow for fresh to strong winds in the S-central Caribbean to pulse at night through the next several days. Winds and seas in the eastern Caribbean and Tropical N Atlc E of the trough will gradually diminish through Sun night. Weak high pressure will then prevail N of the area Mon through Wed ahead of a strong cold front that will move across the NW Atlantic. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the SW Atlantic. A broad upper level cyclonic wind flow continues to affect the waters north of the Greater Antilles. A surface trough extends from 29N68W to Hispaniola and scattered moderate convection is noted east of the boundary to 60W.The pressure gradient between the trough, the deep tropics and a 1024 mb high pressure system near Bermuda support fresh to strong easterly winds south of 28N and between 60W and 70W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent west of the surface trough in the western tropical Atlantic. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N21W to 28N30W and continues southwestward as a surface trough to 25N45W. No deep convection is associated with this feature. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are evident north of the cold front and surface trough. Seas are 7-10 ft in the waters described, with the highest seas occurring near 30N25W. The pressure gradient between the broad subtropical ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 22N and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Wave heights in the area described are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, broad inverted trough accompanied by active weather extends from near 29N69W to 26N72W then central Hispaniola, and will continue to shift W to the central Bahamas through Sun night while weakening. Atlantic high pres is drapped across the waters N of the trough, and is producing fresh winds and seas to 10 ft E of the trough. Winds and seas across the region will gradually diminish through late Sun as the high pres weakens. $$ DELGADO